USD/CNH grinds higher past 6.9100 on softer China PMI, focus on stimulus, US NFP

• USD/CNH picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s losses, seesaws near two-year high.
• China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI marked contraction, tracks official activity numbers for August.
• Chinese government to unveil details of stimulus during early September.
• Grim covid conditions, Fed vs. PBOC divergence keep buyers hopeful ahead of the key US data.

USD/CNH regains upside momentum after snapping a three-day north-run the previous day, as downbeat activity data joins the risk-off mood during Thursday’s Asian session. However, the pair buyers seem cautious ahead of the anticipated release of the stimulus plan from the Chinese government.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI marked the lowest prints in three months while suggesting a contraction in activities with a 49.5 figure, versus 50.2 expected and 50.4 prior. In doing so, the private manufacturing gauge tracks the official NBS PMI and highlights grim conditions at the world’s largest industrial player.

China will publish detailed steps for a set of newly-announced policy measures in early September, as state media quoted the cabinet saying on Wednesday, reported Reuters. The news also stated that China would guide commercial banks to provide medium- and long-term loans to key projects and equipment upgrading, the cabinet was quoted as saying.

Also fueling the pair are the covid-led lockdowns in China and the escalating tussles with Taiwan. Recently, Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-Wen mentioned that Taiwan wants to expand its semiconductor industry collaboration with the US.

Furthermore, robust US Treasury yields and central bankers’ aggression despite softer data appear to fuel the USD/CNH prices. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields refreshed a two-month high of around 3.21%, while the two-year bond coupons jumped to the highest levels since 2007, near 3.51% at the latest. Also portraying the sour sentiment is the S&P 500 Futures’ 0.36% intraday fall to the lowest levels since late July, at 3,930 by the press time.

On Wednesday, US ADP Employment Change rose by 132K versus 288K expected and 270K prior. However, the average wage increases in the US in August were 7.6% y/y and the same kept the Fed policymakers hawkish. Following the data, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that she was not anticipating the Fed to cut rates next year, as reported by Reuters. Further, the newly appointed Dallas Fed President Lory Logan joined the lines of hawkish fellow US central bankers while saying, “Restoring price stability is No. 1 priority.”

Not only in the US but strong Eurozone inflation data and the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers, also portray the central bankers’ broadly hawkish stance.

Looking forward, hopes of upbeat details of the Chinese stimulus and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, expected 52.8 versus 52.0 prior, could entertain the traders ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

Technical analysis

USD/CNH pullback remains elusive until breaking a three-week-old support line, near 6.8850 by the press time. That said, the latest multi-month high of 6.9326, marked on Monday, appears to lure the bulls.