USD/CHF surges past 0.8600 on high US bond yields after upbeat US jobless claims report


  • Initial Jobless Claims for the last week came in at 228K, significantly lower than the 240K forecast, indicating a tight labor market.
  • Continuing Claims report showed an increase of 33K to 1.754 million from 1.721 million, underlining persistent demand for labor.
  • Existing Home Sales in June slipped by 3.3% to 4.16 million, a decrease from the 4.3 million reported in May.

USD/CHF rallies sharply on Thursday after a solid US jobs report put into the table, another interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve, past the July meeting. The USD/CHD trades at 0.8669 after hitting a daily low of 0.8560, printing gains of 1.06%.

A robust labor market report triggers a USD rally against the CHF as the prospect of another Fed rate hike resurfaces

Two reports emerged from the US economic docket, with the first being the Initial Jobless Claims for the last week, pushing back against the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) intentions to pause its hiking cycle as the labor market remains tight. Figures came at 228K beneath the 240K forecast, while Continuing Claims, which lagged the current claims week reported, jumped 33K, to 1.754 million, from 1721K.

Recently, Existing Home Sales in June slipped by 3.3%, as shown by the National Association of Realtors. Sales came at 4.16 million, below the 4.3 million in May and beneath the 4.2 million forecasts by analysts.

The USD/CHF soared after the data, as US Treasury bond yields surged, with 2s and 10s soaring ten basis points (bps), each at 4.866%, and 3.860%, respectively. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value vs. six currencies, advances 0.62%, at 100.903, a tailwind for the USD/CHF.

The jump in US bond yields is also a consequence of traders repricing another rate increase by the Fed after the July meeting. Odds for the November meeting increased from 19.8% a week ago to 32.2%, as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool, suggesting traders are switching their point of view regarding Fed’s monetary policy.

On the Switzerland front, the Trade Balance expanded by 4,823 million vs. estimates of 4,031 million but trailed the 5,442 million in May. Exports grew to 24,917 million from 23,879 million in previous readings, whereas the Imports also rose to 20,093M compared to 18,438M marked in May.

That said, the USD/CHF could continue to rally if the US Fed raises rates and keep the door open for another increase, probably in November. That would catch traders off guard, which are already beginning to price in Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cuts by  March 2024. Otherwise, the USD/CHF could hover around current exchange rates, awaiting a fresh catalyst.

USD/CHF Key Technical Levels

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price 0.8679
Today Daily Change 0.0094
Today Daily Change % 1.09
Today daily open 0.8585
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.8839
Daily SMA50 0.8946
Daily SMA100 0.9016
Daily SMA200 0.9232
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.8614
Previous Daily Low 0.8567
Previous Weekly High 0.8918
Previous Weekly Low 0.8566
Previous Monthly High 0.912
Previous Monthly Low 0.8902
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8596
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.8585
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8564
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8542
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8517
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.861
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.8635
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8657

 

 

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