- USD/CHF grinds higher at eight-day top amid sluggish session.
- Firmer US data, hawkish Fedspeak propel DXY ahead of Fed Minutes, US CPI.
- Escalating geopolitical, recession fears also underpin US dollar’s safe-haven demand.
- Buyers need confirmation of 75 bps rate hike from FOMC Minutes to keep the reins.
USD/CHF seesaws near 0.9950 during Monday’s inactive Asian session, after a three-day uptrend. That said, the holidays in the US, Japan and Canada restrict the pair’s immediate moves. However, fears of recession and aggressive Fed rate hikes keep the buyers hopeful around one-week high.
The US dollar’s strength is the key force behind the pair’s recent up-moves. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose during the last three days while reversing the previous weekly pullback from the 20-year high as markets priced in the 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike from the Fed. Behind the hawkish Fed bets could be the firmer US jobs report and upbeat comments from the policymakers that suggest further rate increases before the pause.
The DXY cheered Friday’s jobs report for September as the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose to 265K versus the 250K expected. Also adding strength to the greenback gauge was an unexpected fall in the Unemployment Rate to 3.5% compared to forecasts suggesting no change in the 3.7% prior.
Elsewhere, the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine tussles, following an explosion that destroyed a part of the bridge in Crimea which is crucial for Russia's war supplies, also propelled the market’s rush to risk safety and favored the US dollar.
On the contrary, concerns that the recession woes could probe the global central banks from hiking the rates at a faster pace challenge the USD/CHF bulls. On the same line could be the cautious sentiment ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a speech from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan.
Given the hawkish concerns from the Fed and the risk aversion wave, the USD/CHF prices are likely to remain firmer. However, upbeat comments from SNB’s Jordan could trigger the pair’s pullback.
Technical analysis
The higher low and higher high formation join upbeat RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals to suggest a clear upside break of the 0.9965 key hurdle that holds the gate for the USD/CHF pair’s further advances.
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