- USD/CHF jumps to 0.9000 even though soft US core PCE inflation for May dampens US Dollar’s appeal.
- Fed officials want to see inflation declining for months before considering rate cuts.
- Investors await the Swiss CPI to get more cues about SNB’s interest rate outlook.
The USD/CHF pair moves higher to near the psychological resistance of 0.9000 in Monday’s European session. The Swiss Franc asset rises even though the US Dollar (USD) has faced a sharp sell-off after the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for May fuelled expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The US PCE report showed on Friday that price pressures declined expectedly. US annual core PCE price index, a Fed’s preferred inflation measure decelerated to 2.6% from the prior release of 2.8%.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that there will be two rate cuts this year and the policy-normalization process will begin from the September meeting.
Contrary to market expectations, Fed officials see only one rate cut this year and they want to see inflation declining for months before cutting interest rates.
After the US PCE inflation data release, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly told in an interview with CNBC that the soft PCE data is good news but we need more good data to gain confidence that inflation will decline to 2%.
Meanwhile, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June to know the health of the factory activities. The Manufacturing PMI report is expected to have improved to 49.0 from the prior release of 48.7 but will remain below the 50.0 threshold, which separates expansion from contraction.
On the Swiss Franc front, investors await the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published on Thursday. The inflation data will indicate whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will extend its rate-cutting cycle in the September meeting. The SNB began reducing interest rates from March and delivered subsequent rate cuts in the June meeting.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on a monthly basis, measures the change in prices of goods and services which are representative of the private households’ consumption in Switzerland. The CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jul 04, 2024 06:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 1.4%
Previous: 1.4%
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