USD/CHF rebounds after hitting YTD low amid risk-off impulse on US recession fears


  • Private hiring in February rose by 145K, lower than anticipated.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI drops to 51.2, below expectations and the previous month’s reading.
  • USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bullish continuation requires reclaiming 0.9100 resistance; otherwise, further losses lie below 0.9000.

USD/CHF hits a new YTD low at 0.9005 but rebounds as a risk-off impulse, seeing a flight to safety, as shown by US equities trading in the red. Growing concerns in the United States (USD) arose after the last tranche of US economic data increased the likelihood of a recession. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9070.

Wall Street fluctuates between gains and losses. US Treasury bond yields continued to drop as the bond market rallied, on investors seeking safe-haven assets. The USD/CHF fell to a multi-month low, though it recovered some ground after US data revealed elevated recession fears.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI headed to 51.2, less than the expected 54.4, and fell short of the previous month’s reading of 55.1. Business activity deterioration, and a decline in new orders growth, were the reasons for the dip. Earlier, the ADP Employment Change report showed that private hiring in February rose by 145K, below the anticipated 200K, trailing January’s upwardly revised figure of 261K.

Given the backdrop that labor market indicators suggesting a downturn in unemployment claims could pave the way for a weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The consensus estimates that the US economy in March created 240K jobs, lower than February’s 311K.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the USD/CHF remains downward biased. Wednesday’s fall toward a multi-month low at around 0.9005 and a late recovery is forming a hammer, which, preceded by a downtrend, can exacerbate an upward correction. For a bullish continuation, the USD/CHF needs to reclaim 0.9100. Above that resistance, a previous support trendline turned resistance around 0.9170-0.9180, which would be the next supply zone, ahead of testing the 20-day EMA. Otherwise, the USD/CHF could extend its losses below 0.9000.

What to watch?

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Not out of the woods yet

AUD/USD: Not out of the woods yet

The continuation of the selling pressure around the US Dollar lent extra wings to AUD/USD and propelled it back above the 0.6500 barrier ahead of the publication of the RBA Minutes of its November 5 event.

AUD/USD News
EUR/USD: The extension and duration of the rebound remain to be seen

EUR/USD: The extension and duration of the rebound remain to be seen

EUR/USD regained further balance and trespassed the key 1.0600 hurdle to clock three-day highs following extra weakness in the Greenback and some loss of momentum around the Trump rally.

EUR/USD News
Gold gives signs of life and reclaims $2,600/oz

Gold gives signs of life and reclaims $2,600/oz

After suffering large losses in the previous week, Gold gathers recovery momentum and trades in positive territory above $2,600 on Monday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, escalating geopolitical tensions help XAU/USD hold its ground.

Gold News
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH risks decline to $2,258 as exchange reserves continue uptrend

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH risks decline to $2,258 as exchange reserves continue uptrend

Ethereum (ETH) is up 1% on Monday after ETH ETFs hit a record $515.5 million inflows last week. However, rising exchange reserves and realized losses could trigger bearish pressure for the top altcoin.

Read more
The week ahead: Powell stumps the US stock rally as Bitcoin surges, as we wait Nvidia earnings, UK CPI

The week ahead: Powell stumps the US stock rally as Bitcoin surges, as we wait Nvidia earnings, UK CPI

The mood music is shifting for the Trump trade. Stocks fell sharply at the end of last week, led by big tech. The S&P 500 was down by more than 2% last week, its weakest performance in 2 months, while the Nasdaq was lower by 3%. The market has now given back half of the post-Trump election win gains.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures