- USD/CHF trades with a mild positive bias, though subdued USD demand caps any meaningful gains.
- The Fed’s hawkish outlook remains supportive of elevated US bond yields and favours the USD bulls.
- A sustained move beyond the 200-day SMA is needed to reaffirm the near-term constructive outlook.
The USD/CHF pair ticks higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks bullish conviction and remains confined within the previous day's broader range. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.8800 mark, comfortably above a one-and-half-week low touched on Thursday and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from its lowest level in almost three weeks and acts as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair. That said, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer favours the USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair is to the upside.
In fact, the minutes of the late January FOMC policy meeting released on Wednesday revealed that policymakers were concerned about cutting interest rates too quickly amid sticky inflation and a still-resilient US economy. Moreover, Fed officials reiterated the message that the central bank was in no hurry to ease its monetary policy. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and validates the positive setup for the Greenback.
Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF), supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/CHF pair. Even from a technical perspective, spot prices showed resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, reaffirms the near-term constructive outlook for the currency pair.
That said, it will still be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the very important 200-day SMA before placing fresh bullish bets around the USD/CHF pair. There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday. Hence, the US bond yields will continue to play a key role in driving demand for the USD. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, should provide some impetus to the major.
Technical levels to watch
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds the bounce toward 0.6250 after China's Caixin Services PMI
AUD/USD sustains the rebound toward 0.6250 in the Asian session on Monday after China's Caixin Services PMI beat estimates with 52.2 in December. China's stimulus optimism and a subdued US Dollar offset increased bets for early RBA rate cuts, reviving the demand for the Aussie.
USD/JPY: Upside remains capped below 158.00 amid cautious mood
USD/JPY is consolidating the upside below 158.00 in Asian trading on Monday. The pair feels the heat from a cautious risk tone and a broadly subdued US Dollar but the divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectatations help keep it afloat in the Nonfarm Payrolls week.
Gold inches higher toward $2,650 as traders await fresh catalysts
Gold price looks to gain ground near $2,640 in the Asian trading hours on Monday as the US Dollar struggles to hold onto the US ISM Manufacturing PMI-led upside. China's stimulus hopes and a softer risk tone underpins the bright metal. All eyes remain on geopolitics and Fedspeak for fresh impetus.
Canadian Dollar jumps as PM Trudeau set to announce resignation
Citing three sources, a Canadian news outlet, The Global and Mail, reported on Sunday that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely announce as early as Monday that he will resign as Liberal Party Leader.
Week ahead – US NFP to test the markets, Eurozone CPI data also in focus
King Dollar flexes its muscles ahead of Friday’s NFP. Eurozone flash CPI numbers awaited as euro bleeds. Canada’s jobs data to impact bets of a January BoC cut. Australia’s CPI and Japan’s wages also on tap.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.