- USD/CHF finds buying interest near 0.8500 amid a marginal recovery in the US Dollar.
- Lower revision of US Nonfarm Payrolls has exhibited concerns over labor market strength.
- Investors keenly await Fed Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The USD/CHF pair discovers buying interest near the psychological support of 0.8500 in Thursday’s European session. The Swiss Franc asset rebounds as the US Dollar (USD) edges higher after posting a fresh 2024 low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, finds a cushion after refreshing a more-than-seven-month low near 101.00.
Market sentiment favors risky assets as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looks set to start reducing interest rates in September. S&P 500 futures have posted nominal gains in European trading hours.
Market speculation for Fed interest rate cuts in September has strengthened as officials see them as appropriate. The confidence of Fed policymakers for unwinding the restrictive monetary policy stance has increased due to consistently easing price pressures and cooling labor market strength, according to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the July 30-31 policy meeting.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the number of total employees hired was 818K lower than previously estimated in the year to March 2024.
Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for August, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. However, the major trigger for the US Dollar this week will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will be kicked off at 14:00 GMT and last till Saturday, on Friday. Fed Powell may provide cues about the likely size of interest rate reduction in September.
Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc will be influenced by market expectations of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) interest rate path amid the absence of top-tier economic data. The SNB is expected to cut interest rates further as price pressures remain well below the bank’s target of 2%.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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