- USD/CHF consolidates gains above the 0.8660 mark, down 0.05% on the day.
- Market participants are repricing another Fed rate increase after the July meeting.
- The Swiss Trade Balance increased by 4,823 million from 5,442 million previously.
- The key event will be the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) monetary policy meeting next week.
The USD/CHF pair consolidates its recent gains above the 0.8660 mark in the Asian session. The pair reversed from the 0.8560 mark on Thursday following the US Unemployment Claims data and the possibility of another Fed rate increase after the July meeting,
The US Department of Labour (DOL) showed on Thursday that weekly Initial Jobless claims totaled 228,000 in the week ending July 15, against the expectation of 242,000 and lower than 237,000 prior. The figure showed the lowest reading since mid-May. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey came in at -13, versus the consensus of -10. While Existing sales from June also showed a contraction of 3.3% MoM in June against a 0.2% prior gain,
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value versus six currencies, has gained momentum after the data and bounced off the 100.00 area. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.
In addition, market participants are repricing another Fed rate increase after the July meeting, causing the Greenback to rebound. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for the November meeting climbed from 19.8% a week ago to 32.2%, showing traders are changing their views on Fed monetary policy.
On the other hand, the Swiss Trade Balance increased by 4,823 million from 5,442 million previously and was lower than expected by 5,442 million. Exports jumped to 24,917M from 23,879M in May, while imports rose to 20,093M from 18,438 M.
Against this backdrop, the cautious mood in the market surrounding the US-China relationship could benefit the safe-haven Swiss Franc. The renewed trade war tension might cap the upside for the US Dollar and act as a headwind for USD/CHF.
In the absence of any top-tier data releases on Friday. Market participants await next week's Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements. This key event could significantly impact the US Dollar's dynamic and give the USD/CHF pair a clear direction.
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