USD/CHF climbs ahead of SNB policy decision
- USD/CHF rises over 0.84%, nearing the weekly high of 0.8500 amid strong US Dollar momentum.
- Markets estimate a 63% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Swiss National Bank at Thursday’s meeting.
- Falling SNB currency reserves signal intervention efforts to weaken the Franc ahead of leadership changes.
The USD/CHF edges higher during the North American session, registering gains of over 0.84% as traders brace for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) monetary policy decision. This and a strong US Dollar, kept the major at around the highs of the week at around 0.8500.
Traders brace for a possible 25 bps SNB rate cut, as the Swiss Franc weakens on intervention rumors and falling currency reserves
Data-wise, the Swiss and US economic dockets remained scarce, as US housing data showed a deterioration in the sector, though a strong recovery of the US Dollar offset it.
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Thursday. Interest Rate Probabilities suggest that market players estimate a 63% chance of a quarter-percentage-point cut by the SNB, while for a larger one, the chances are at 37%.
According to FX Street Analyst Joaquin Monfort: “Complaints from Swiss exporters who claim the strength of CHF is making them uncompetitive have put pressure on the SNB to directly intervene in FX markets to weaken the CHF.”
“Last week data revealed that the SNB’s Foreign Currency Reserves fell to CHF 694 billion in August, down from CHF 704 billion in July. This marks the fourth consecutive decline, suggesting the SNB continues selling the Franc to dampen its value,” Monfort added.
Worth noting that this meeting would be the last for SNB Chairman Jordan, which will be replaced by the Vice-Chair Schlegel
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
