- USD/CHF softens to around 0.9110 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The US CPI inflation came in hotter than expected in January.
- The rising Middle East geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc.
The USD/CHF pair weakens to near 0.9110, snapping the fifth-day winning streak during the early European session on Thursday. The concerns about US President Donald Trump’s trade tariff and weakening of the US Dollar (USD) drag the pair lower. Investors brace for the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are due later on Thursday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday emphasized that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates during a second congressional hearing this week but said that there has been "great progress" on inflation. The USD weakens as traders took profits and evaluated whether January's inflation report was an anomaly and unlikely to signal a larger trend toward higher prices.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year in January versus 2.9% prior. This reading came in hotter than the 2.9% expected. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, climbed 3.3% in January, compared to the previous reading of 3.2% and the estimation of 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI inflation jumped to 0.5% in January from 0.4% in December, while the core CPI increased to 0.4% in January from 0.2% recorded in December.
On the Swiss front, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the Swiss Franc (CHF), a safe-haven currency. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late Tuesday that the ceasefire will be over and Israel will resume “intense fighting” in Gaza if Hamas doesn’t release “our hostages” by Saturday noon.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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