- USD/CAD attracts intraday sellers after hitting a fresh multi-year top amid a modest USD downtick.
- Oil prices remain below a multi-week high, undermining the Loonie and lending support to the pair.
- Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for US President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural address.
The USD/CAD pair retreated slightly after touching its highest level since March 2020 during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak. Spot prices currently trade around the mid-1.4400s, down 0.10% for the day amid a modest US Dollar (USD), though the downtick lacks follow-through or a bearish conviction.
Signs of abating inflation in the US increased the chances that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates twice this year and failed to assist the USD to capitalize on Friday's positive move. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone around the equity markets is seen weighing on the safe-haven buck and the USD/CAD pair. Investors, however, expect that US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies could boost inflation. This might force the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, warranting some caution for the USD bears.
Meanwhile, easing tensions in the Middle East, along with expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump could relax curbs on Russia in exchange for a deal to end the Ukraine war, offset worries about tighter supplies and weigh on Crude Oil prices. This, in turn, could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and contribute to limiting losses for the USD/CAD pair. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for Trump's inaugural address later today, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for deeper losses.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD stays firm near 0.6300 after strong Chinese exports data
AUD/USD is trading well bid near 0.6300 in Asian trades on Monday, opening the week on the front foot. Risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot following the weekend's news of lower US tariffs on Chinese electronic supply chain and strong Chinese exports data for March. Tariffs talks will remain on the radar.
USD/JPY recovers to 143.00 amid volatile trading
USD/JPY is trimming losses to retake 143\.00 in Monday's Asian trading. The US Dollar pauses its latest leg down, with traders digesting Trump's tariff news from the weekend. However, the Fed-BoJ policy divergence expectations underpin the Japanese Yen, keeping the weight intact on the pair.
Gold retreats from record highs of $3,245 as US Dollar finds its feet
Gold is rereating from record highs of $3,245 early Monday, extending Friday's late pullback. Reducded demand for safe-havens and a broad US Dollar rebound undermine the yellow metal amid the news of not-so-steep US tariffs on China's semiconductors and electronics.
Week ahead: ECB set to cut, BoC might pause as Trump U-turns on tariffs
ECB is expected to trim rates, but the BoC might pause this time. CPI data also in the spotlight; due in UK, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. Retail sales the main release in the United States. China GDP eyed as Beijing not spared by Trump.
Is a recession looming?
Wall Street skyrockets after Trump announces tariff delay. But gains remain limited as Trade War with China continues. Recession odds have eased, but investors remain fearful. The worst may not be over, deeper market wounds still possible.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.