- USD/CAD gains ground as the Fed is expected to deliver a less aggressive rate cut in September.
- Traders await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday ahead of upcoming US employment data.
- The downside of the commodity-linked CAD would be limited due to higher Oil prices.
USD/CAD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3520 during the early European hours on Tuesday. This upside of the USD/CAD pair is attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD) amid decreasing odds of an aggressive interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve rate in September.
Additionally, US Treasury yields continue to rise and provide support for the US Dollar, but its gains may be limited by growing expectations of a quarter-basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are nearly 70% confident of at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting.
However, the decline in the commodity-linked CAD is expected to be limited by rising crude Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil has climbed to near $73.60 per barrel at the time of writing, supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Libya. Oil exports from key ports were suspended on Monday, and production has been scaled back nationwide, according to six engineers quoted by Reuters.
The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on Wednesday will be closely monitored. It is widely anticipated that the BoC will reduce interest rates for the third consecutive time during its September meeting. Investors expect the Canadian central bank to lower its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25%, with additional cuts likely throughout the remainder of the year and into 2025.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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