- USD/CAD trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day near 1.3605 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- The recent discouraging US economic data have fuelled the chance of a Fed September rate cut, weighing the US Dollar.
- Canadian Net Change in Employment is expected to decline to 22.5K versus 26.7K prior.
The USD/CAD pair trades on a negative note around 1.3605 during the early Asian session on Friday. The downtick of the pair is backed by the weaker US Dollar (USD) boardly. The release of US and Canadian employment reports will be the highlights on Friday.
Market consensus forecasts the US employment growth slowed in June, with a 190,000 increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.0%, partially due to a forecast decline in the participation rate last month.
The recent softer US PCE inflation and weaker Services PMI have raised the chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) September rate cut, with the markets pricing a 70% odds leading into the NFP release of that occurring. The markets also see a second rate cut in December, which is priced in around an 80% probability. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Greenback.
On the Loonie front, the Canadian Net Change in Employment is expected to drop to 22.5K from the previous reading of 26.7K. The Canadian Unemployment Rate is projected to tick higher to 6.3% from 6.2%. Meanwhile, the modest decline in crude oil price might weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), as Canada is the major crude oil exporter to the United States.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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