- USD/CAD depreciates as the commodity-linked CAD receives support from improved Oil prices.
- Ukraine has launched British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasized the importance of a cautious approach in making policy decisions.
USD/CAD retraces its recent gains from the previous day as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from the improved crude Oil prices amid rising fears of supply disruption amid geopolitical tensions. The pair trades around 1.3960 during the European session on Thursday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price recovers recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around $69.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices found support after Ukraine launched British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, marking another deployment of Western weaponry against Russian targets. This followed Ukraine's use of U.S. ATACMS missiles the day before.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar may gain support as expectations for a deeper-than-usual interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in December have diminished. Following hotter-than-expected inflation data on Tuesday, markets are now pricing a nearly 26% probability of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the BoC in December, down from 37% before the CPI release.
The US Dollar (USD) remains steady due to cautious remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated on Wednesday that while more interest rate cuts are necessary, policymakers should proceed cautiously to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted that inflation remains elevated over the past few months and stressed the need for the Fed to proceed cautiously with rate cuts.
A Reuters poll indicated that nearly 90% of economists (94 out of 106) anticipate a 25bps cut in December, lowering the fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. Economists predict shallower rate cuts in 2025 due to the risk of higher inflation from President-elect Trump's policies. The fed funds rate is forecasted to be 3.50%-3.75% by the end of 2025, which is 50bps higher than last month’s projection.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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