- USD/CAD trades with a mild negative bias for the third straight day on Monday.
- The downside, however, seems cushioned amid a pullback in Crude Oil prices.
- The Fed rate-cut uncertainty might further contribute to limiting the downside.
The USD/CAD pair remains on the defensive for the third successive day on Monday, albeit lacks follow-through selling and manages to hold above last week's swing low, around the 1.3415 region. Moreover, a combination of diverging forces warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets and positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the vicinity of the monthly peak tested last Thursday.
Houthi rebels stepped up their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and a drone attack on US forces by radical Iran-backed militant groups killed three soldiers. This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and fueled concerns over supply disruption in the region, pushing Crude Oil prices to a nearly two-month high on Monday. The commodity, however, struggles to capitalize on the move as traders opt to take some profits off the table ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on February 1. This, in turn, could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie, which, along with the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) should lend support to the USD/CAD pair.
Progress towards achieving the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% inflation target takes further tightening off the table, though market participants remain uncertain over the timing of the first rate cut. The Personal Income and Spending data released on Friday pointed to strong demand from US consumers. This, along with last week's upbeat US Q4 GDP print, suggested that the economy is still in good shape and should allow the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. This, along with geopolitical tensions, assists the safe-haven buck to stand tall near its highest level since December 13 touched earlier this week and might further contribute to limiting any further decline for the USD/CAD pair.
Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait for the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors this week will also confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched monthly employment details or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair. In the meantime, Oil price dynamics could allow traders to grab short-term opportunities on Monday in the absence of any relevant market moving economic releases either from the US or Canada.
Technical levels to watch
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays near 1.0400 in thin holiday trading
EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0400 on Tuesday. The expectation that the US Federal Reserve will deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 provides some support for the US Dollar. Trading volumes are likely to remain low heading into the Christmas break.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction, holds steady near 1.2550
GBP/USD consolidates in a range at around 1.2550 on Tuesday after closing in negative territory on Monday. The US Dollar preserves its strength and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction as trading conditions thin out on Christmas Eve.
Gold holds above $2,600, bulls non-committed on hawkish Fed outlook
Gold trades in a narrow channel above $2,600 on Tuesday, albeit lacking strong follow-through buying. Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD, while the Fed’s hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the USD and caps the precious metal.
IRS says crypto staking should be taxed in response to lawsuit
In a filing on Monday, the US International Revenue Service stated that the rewards gotten from staking cryptocurrencies should be taxed, responding to a lawsuit from couple Joshua and Jessica Jarrett.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.