- USD/CAD rises further to near 1.4330 as the Canadian Dollar weakens amid growing risks of inflation undershooting BoC’s target of 2%.
- The US Dollar consolidates ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting outcome.
- Investors expect the Fed to deliver slightly hawkish remarks on the policy outlook.
The USD/CAD pair posts a fresh more than four-year high around 1.4330 on Wednesday. The Loonie pair extends Tuesday’s rally on Wednesday, which was prompted by softer-than-expected Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November.
The inflation report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9%, slower than estimates and the prior release of 2%. Month-on-month headline inflation remained flat, as expected. In October, the monthly headline CPI rose by 0.4%. Soft inflation data boosted expectations of more outsize interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said last week that the central bank will shift to a more gradual policy-easing stance.
Additionally, political uncertainty in Canada has weighed on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the beginning of the week, Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned after a policy clash with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stays in a tight range, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outcome at 20:00 GMT. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%- 4.50%, with slightly hawkish guidance.
USD/CAD has shown a stalwart rally after a breakout of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a weekly timeframe. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3900 suggests that the overall trend is bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting that a strong upside momentum is intact.
The rally in the Loonie pair could advance to the round-level figure of 1.4400 and the psychological resistance of 1.4500 if the asset breaks above 1.4350.
On the contrary, a downside move below the December 11 low of 1.4120 could drag the asset towards the December 4 high of around 1.4080, followed by the psychological support of 1.4000.
USD/CAD weekly chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0500 ahead of Fed rate call
EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrow range at around 1.0500 in on Wednesday. The pair's further upside remains capped as traders stay cautious and refrain from placing fresh bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated policy announcements.
GBP/USD holds above 1.2700 after UK inflation data
GBP/USD enters a consolidation phase above 1.2700 following the earlier decline. The data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation rose to 2.6% in November from 2.3%, as expected. Investors gear up for the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
Gold stays at around $2,650, upside remains limited with all eyes on Fed
Gold is practically flat near $2,650 on Wednesday after bouncing up from a one-week low it set on Tuesday. The precious metal remains on the defensive as the market braces for the outcome of the last Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting of the year.
Federal Reserve set for hawkish interest-rate cut as traders dial back chances of additional easing in 2025
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower the policy rate by 25 bps at the last meeting of 2024. Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks and the revised dot plot could provide important clues about the interest-rate outlook.
Sticky UK services inflation to come lower in 2025
Services inflation is stuck at 5% and will stay around there for the next few months. But further progress, helped by more benign annual rises in index-linked prices in April, should see ‘core services’ inflation fall materially in the spring.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.