USD/CAD Price Analysis: Defends 1.3650 resistance-turned-support ahead of Canadian jobs data

USD/CAD meets with some supply on Friday and is pressured by a modest USD weakness.
Hawkish Fed expectations and softer Oil prices limit losses ahead of Canadian jobs report.
A convincing break below the 1.3600 mark might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair comes under some selling pressure on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's positive move to the 1.3700 neighbourhood, or its highest level since late March. Spot prices, however, manage to rebound a few pips from the daily low and trade around the 1.3665-1.3670 area during the first half of the European session, down less than 0.15% for the day.

A modest US Dollar (USD) retracement slide from a six-month top, triggered by retreating US Treasury bond yields, turns out to be a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. That said, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD. Apart from this, a softer tone surrounding Crude Oil prices undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and contributes to limiting the downside for the major. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the Canadian jobs report, due later during the early North American session.

From a technical perspective, the intraday downtick stalls near the 1.3650 horizontal resistance breakpoint, now turned support. Any further decline is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the 1.3600 round-figure mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively should pave the way for some meaningful corrective decline. The USD/CAD pair might then accelerate the slide towards the next relevant support near the 1.3525 region en route to the 1.3500 1.3500 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling will expose the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently currently around the 1.3460 region.

On the flip side, bullish traders might now wait for a sustained strength beyond the 1.3700 mark before placing fresh bets. The subsequent move-up has the potential to lift the USD/CAD pair towards the 1.3730 resistance zone en route to the 1.3800 round figure. The upward trajectory could get extended further and push spot prices towards retesting the YTD top, around the 1.3860 region touched in March.

USD/CAD daily chart

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3668
Today Daily Change	-0.0016
Today Daily Change %	-0.12
Today daily open	1.3684

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3559
Daily SMA50	1.338
Daily SMA100	1.3404
Daily SMA200	1.3466

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3694
Previous Daily Low	1.3632
Previous Weekly High	1.3637
Previous Weekly Low	1.3489
Previous Monthly High	1.364
Previous Monthly Low	1.3184
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3671
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3656
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3646
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3608
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3584
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3709
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3733
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3771

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD looks sidelined below 1.1600

EUR/USD remains on the back foot in the latter part of the NA session on Thursday, now attempting a consolidative theme in the sub-1.1600 region. A more cautious market mood, driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, together with broad-based strength in the US Dollar, is favouring the continuation of the leg lower in spot.

GBP/USD stays offered near 1.3340

GBP/USD fades Wednesday’s uptick and trades with decent losses in the 1.3340 zone in the latter part of Thursday’s session. Cable’s weakness, alongside the rest of the risk complex, follows the strong performance of the Greenback amid intense geopolitical jitters.

Gold: further weakness could challenge $5,000

Gold comes under fresh selling pressure on Thursday, slipping back below the $5,100 mark per troy ounce. Persistent strength in the US Dollar (USD) is preventing the yellow metal from building a meaningful recovery, even as markets remain risk-averse amid the deepening conflict in the Middle East.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP hold weekly gains despite US-Iran war

The cryptocurrency market is gaining strength on Thursday, building on Wednesday's upswing, which saw Bitcoin reach a weekly high above $74,000. Ethereum and Ripple are moderating their recent gains amid uncertainty stemming from the escalating war in the Middle East.

Two PMIs, two Chinas

China’s economic data are often treated with a degree of caution by global investors. The challenge is not necessarily that the numbers are incorrect, but that they can describe very different parts of a vast and complex economy. Nowhere is that more evident than in China’s PMIs.

Ripple tests recovery strength amid steady ETF inflows, growing retail interest

Ripple (XRP) continues to demonstrate notable resilience as the cryptocurrency market navigates the persistent war in the Middle East after the United States (US) and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday.