- USD/CAD trades with a positive bias for the fifth straight day, closer to a multi-week top.
- The uptick is led by the recent slump in Oil prices and seems unaffected by a weaker USD.
- The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for a further move up.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers for the fifth successive day on Tuesday and trades above mid-1.3700s during the Asian session, closer to a six-week peak touched the previous day.
The recent slump in Crude Oil prices, to over a one-month low, is seen as a key factor undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. The uptick, meanwhile, seems rather unaffected by the emergence of some selling around the US Dollar (USD), which continues to be weighed down by bets for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained breakout and a close above the 1.3740 supply zone could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, validates the positive bias and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside.
Some follow-through buying beyond the 1.3775 area, or the multi-week top set on Monday, will reaffirm the constructive outlook and allow bulls to reclaim the 1.3800 mark. The momentum could extend further and lift the USD/CAD pair back towards the YTD peak, around the 1.3845 region touched on April 16.
On the flip side, weakness below the 1.3740 resistance breakpoint is likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the 1.3700 round figure. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/CAD pair to the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently pegged near the 1.3655 region, which should now act as a key pivotal point.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD eases below 1.0900 amid cautious mood
EUR/USD has erased gains to trade on the back foot below 1.0900 early Tuesday. The pair treads water amid a cautious market mood, as traders weigh the US political updates and China slowdown worries. The US Dollar remains subdued, in the absence of top-tier economic data.
GBP/USD drops toward 1.2900 as US Dollar looks to stabilize
GBP/USD is dropping toward 1.2900, lacking firm direction in European trading on Tuesday. The US Dollar looks to stabilize after the early decline, weighing on the pair. Traders await mid-tier US housing data for fresh trading impetus.
Gold price struggles to gain ground amid mixed fundamental cues
A combination of factors drag the Gold price lower to nearly a one-week low on Tuesday. Bets that the Fed will cut rates in September could lend support and help limit losses.
Bitcoin price struggles around $67,000 as US Government transfers, Mt. Gox funds movement weigh
Bitcoin (BTC) struggles around the $67,000 mark and declines by 1.7% at the time of writing on Tuesday at around $66,350. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw significant inflows of $530.20 million on Monday.
Big tech rebound ahead of earnings, Oil slips
/stock-market-graph-gm532464153-55981218_XtraSmall.jpg)
Tesla and Google are due to report earnings today after the bell, and their results could shift the wind in either direction. Despite almost doubling its stock price between April and July, Tesla sees appetite for its cars and its market share under pressure.