- USD/CAD trades with mild gains around 1.4310 in Thursday’s late American session.
- Trump placed a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, which will take effect on April 2.
- US GDP grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in the October-to-December period.
The USD/CAD pair posts modest gains near 1.4310 during the late American session on Thursday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens after US President Donald Trump announced auto trade levies, widening the global trade war. Investors await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), which is due later on Friday.
Trump on Wednesday signed a proclamation to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports and pledged harsher punishment on the EU and Canada if they join forces against the US. This development undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the pair as Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil and autos. Trump's aggressive trade measures look certain to worsen relations with major trading partners, even before his planned so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
The US economy expanded at an annual 2.4% pace in the final three months of 2024, supported by a year-end surge in consumer spending, the third release of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday. This figure came in slightly better than the previous estimate of fourth-quarter growth. However, the outlook is cloudier as Trump’s trade policies could push up inflation and hurt growth. This, in turn, might exert some selling pressure on the Greenback against the CAD.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD turns lower to near 1.0800 ahead of German inflation data
EUR/USD has come under fresh selling and trades near 1.0800 in European trading on Monday. The pair feels the heat from a modest US Dollar comeback while Euro buyers stay cautious ahead of Germany's prelim inflation data and Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement.
Gold sits at record highs above $3,100 amid tariff woes
Gold price holds its record-setting rally toward $3,150 in European trading on Monday. The bullion continues to capitalize on safe-haven flows amid intesifying global tariff war fears. US economic concerns weigh on the US Dollar and Treasury yields, aiding the Gold price upsurge.
GBP/USD holds lower ground below 1.2950 amid tariff woes
GBP/USD has returned to negative territory in the European session on Monday. Concerns that US President Donald Trump's tariffs will ignite inflation and dampen economic growth have helped revive the havem demand for the US Dollar, weighing down on the pair.
Seven Fundamentals for the Week: “Liberation Day” tariffs and Nonfarm Payrolls to rock markets Premium
United States President Donald Trump is set to announce tariffs in the middle of the week; but reports, rumors, and counter-measures will likely dominate the headline. It is also a busy week on the economic data front, with a full buildup to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March.
US: Trump's 'Liberation day' – What to expect?
Trump has so far enacted tariff changes that have lifted the trade-weighted average tariff rate on all US imports by around 5.5-6.0%-points. While re-rerouting of trade will decrease the effectiveness of tariffs over time, the current level is already close to the highest since the second world war.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.