USD/CAD pauses on the way to 1.2600, oil moves, US data in focus

USD/CAD seesaws around early October levels near 1.2580-90 during Friday’s Asian session. The Loonie pair refreshed the multi-day peak the previous day despite bank holidays in Canada and the US restricted market moves.

The reason could be linked to the US dollar’s sustained run-up on the back of the Fed rate hike chatters and sluggish prices of Canada’s main export item, WTI crude oil. However, traders turn cautious ahead of the Treasury market’s opening after a one-day off and will be waiting for US data, as well as old catalysts for fresh impulse.

US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed the 16-month high to 95.1961 before closing around 95.1228 by the end of Thursday’s North American session.

Over a three-decade high in US inflation propelled Fed rate hike concerns and favored the US dollar of late.

On the same line could be the greenback’s safe-haven allure that gains importance amid growing concerns over China’s economic growth, mainly due to the credit crisis for real-estate companies and power cuts across the country. The same joins the Sino-American tussles over the phase 1 deal, Vietnam and Hong Kong to weigh on oil prices and offer additional fuel to the USD/CAD prices.

It is worth noting that talks of the US releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s (SPR) to battle the energy crisis also recently challenged WTI bulls and favored the USD/CAD upside.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed with the holiday in the US Treasury markets. However, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November will be eyed for fresh impulse as the traders return from the holiday.

Technical analysis

A clear break of the 100- and 50-DMA convergence, near 1.2540-45, enables USD/CAD bulls to aim for multiple levels marked since late July around the 1.2600 threshold.