- USD/CAD bounces off two-month low as US dollar licks post-inflation wounds.
- Headlines surrounding China, Fedspeak favors DXY’s corrective pullback.
- WTI crude oil grinds higher ahead of OPEC and IEA demand forecasts.
- US PPI, risk catalysts could entertain traders amid a light calendar.
USD/CAD picks up bids to refresh intraday high near 1.2785 as traders lick US inflation-led wounds at a two-month low during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote justifies the US dollar’s recent rebound amid doubts over the Fed’s next move and China-linked headlines while ignoring upbeat prices of Canada’s main export item, WTI crude oil.
The Loonie pair slumped the most since early June the previous day after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 8.5% on YoY in July versus 8.7% expected and 9.1% prior. “After Wednesday's CPI report, traders of futures tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate pared bets on a third straight 75-basis-point hike at its Sept. 20-21 policy meeting and now see a half-point increase as the more likely option,” said Reuters following the data.
US President Joe Biden also cheered the US CPI miss while saying, “Seeing some signs that inflation may be moderating,” as reported by Reuters. "We could face additional headwinds in the months ahead," Biden added. "We still have work to do but we're on track," adds US President Biden.
However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans raised doubts about the latest easing of hawkish Fed bets. Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to increase the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.
In addition to the Fedspeak, headlines surrounding China underpinned the latest rebound in the US dollar. Reuters relied on sources to mention that the saying US President Biden rethinks steps on China tariffs in the wake of Taiwan's response. Additionally, a jump in the coronavirus cases from China, to 700 new confirmed cases in the mainland on August 10 versus 444 a day earlier, also weighs on the pair.
Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains near 4,220 by the press time after Wall Street rallied and the US Treasury yields remained mostly unchanged the previous day. That said, the WTI crude oil grinds higher past $91.00, up 0.10% intraday, whereas the US Dollar Index (DXY) gains 0.14% to 105.40 at the latest.
Looking forward, the weekly readings of the US Jobless Claims and the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July could entertain the gold traders. However, major attention should be given to the qualitative factors in the wake of recent risk-negative headlines. Also important will be the monthly oil demand forecasts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Technical analysis
USD/CAD recovery aims for the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.2800. However, the previous resistance line from early June, around 1.2820 by the press time, challenges the bull’s return. On the contrary, fresh selling remains doubtful until the quote exceeds the 200-DMA support, near 1.2745 at the latest.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD stays firm near 0.6300 after strong Chinese exports data
AUD/USD is trading well bid near 0.6300 in Asian trades on Monday, opening the week on the front foot. Risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot following the weekend's news of lower US tariffs on Chinese electronic supply chain and strong Chinese exports data for March. Tariffs talks will remain on the radar.
USD/JPY recovers to 143.00 amid volatile trading
USD/JPY is trimming losses to retake 143.00 in Monday's Asian trading. The US Dollar pauses its latest leg down, with traders digesting Trump's tariff news from the weekend. However, the Fed-BoJ policy divergence expectations underpin the Japanese Yen, keeping the weight intact on the pair.
Gold price consolidates near all-time peak as bulls pause for breather
Gold price refreshes record high as escalating US-China trade war boosts safe-haven demand. US recession fears, Fed rate cut bets and a bearish USD further benefit the XAU/USD pair. Improving risk sentiment might cap the precious metal amid a slightly overbought daily RSI.
Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakout while Ethereum and Ripple stabilize
Bitcoin price approaches its key resistance level at $85,000 on Monday; a breakout indicates a bullish trend ahead. Ethereum and Ripple found support around their key levels last week, suggesting a recovery is in the cards.
Is a recession looming?
Wall Street skyrockets after Trump announces tariff delay. But gains remain limited as Trade War with China continues. Recession odds have eased, but investors remain fearful. The worst may not be over, deeper market wounds still possible.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.