- USD/CAD softens to around 1.4025 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- US core PCE inflation climbed to 2.8% YoY in October, as expected.
- Trump’s tariff plans on Canadian imports could weigh on the Canadian Dollar.
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.4025 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakens to a multi-day low due to monthly flows and the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
The US Dollar (USD) declines further as traders prefer not to hold positions before a long Thanksgiving weekend. However, the downside for the Greenback might be limited as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may be cautious about interest rate cuts after stubbornly strong US inflation data.
Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Wednesday showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.3% on a yearly basis in October, compared to a 2.1% increase in September.
Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% in the same period, up from 2.7% in September. Both figures came in line with the market consensus. On a monthly basis, the core PCE Price Index increased 0.3% in October, as expected. This report indicated that consumer spending increased solidly in October, but progress on lowering inflation appeared to have stalled.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 66.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, up from 55.7% before the PCE data. Nonetheless, they anticipate the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its January and March meetings.
On the Loonie front, the expectation that US President-elect Donald Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian goods during his first stint as US president could exert some selling pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and act as a tailwind for the pair. On Monday, Trump vowed to introduce 25% tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on goods coming from China.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes above 1.1350 on Easter Friday
EUR/USD enters a consolidation phase above 1.1350 on Friday as the trading action remains subdued, with major markets remaining closed in observance of the Easter Holiday. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it cut key rates by 25 bps, as expected.
GBP/USD fluctuates below 1.3300, looks to post weekly gains
After setting a new multi-month high near 1.3300 earlier in the week, GBP/USD trades in a narrow band at around 1.32700 on Friday and remains on track to end the week in positive territory. Markets turn quiet on Friday as trading conditions thin out on Easter Holiday.
Gold ends week with impressive gains above $3,300
Gold retreated slightly from the all-time high it touched at $3,357 early Thursday but still gained more than 2% for the week after settling at $3,327. The uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations caused markets to adopt a cautious stance, boosting safe-haven demand for Gold.
How SEC-Ripple case and ETF prospects could shape XRP’s future
Ripple consolidated above the pivotal $2.00 level while trading at $2.05 at the time of writing on Friday, reflecting neutral sentiment across the crypto market.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.