USD/CAD gathers strength near 1.4300, traders await US CPI release
- USD/CAD gains momentum to near 1.4295 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Fed’s Powell signaled there is no urgency to cut interest rates.
- A rise in crude oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie.
The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to around 1.4295 on Wednesday during the early European session, bolstered by a firmer US Dollar (USD). The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for January will be the highlight later on Wednesday.
US President Donald Trump signed proclamations imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, including those from Canada. However, the restrictions will not take effect until March 12.
In his semi-annual report to Congress, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell stated that Fed officials are in no rush to cut interest rates due to a strong job market and solid economic growth. He added that Trump’s tariff policies could drive prices higher, complicating the Fed’s ability to lower rates. The cautious stance of the US central bank is likely to lift the Greenback in the near term.
On the other hand, crude oil prices edge higher as sanctions raised concerns about Russian and Iranian oil supplies and rising Middle East tensions. This, in turn, could provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie and create a headwind for USD/CAD. It's worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
