USD/CAD flat-lines below mid-1.3500s, defends 100-day SMA amid bearish Oil prices

USD/CAD oscillates in a range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.
Weaker Crude Oil prices undermine the Loonie and continue to lend support to the pair.
A modest USD downtick might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets and cap the upside.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair once again finds support near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and attracts some buyers near the 1.3530-1.3525 region, or a one-week low touched this Tuesday, though lacks follow-through. Spot prices seesaw between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and currently trade around the 1.3535-1.3540 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

Crude Oil prices remain depressed amid worries that a deeper global economic downturn will dent fuel consumption, which, in turn, weighs on the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets and act as a headwind for the major, warranting some caution for aggressive bulls.

The USD downtick comes amid the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path. In fact, the markets have fully priced in another 25 bps lift-off at the end of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday and expect the US central bank to pause its rate-hiking cycle beyond May. That said, the incoming US data keeps alive the possibility of a further hike in June and lends support to the buck.

Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the highly-anticipated FOMC policy decision, scheduled to be announced during the US session on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/CAD pair's recent pullback from a one-month high touched last Friday has run its course.

Investors will then look to the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the NFP report on Friday. Ahead of the key central bank event risk and the US macro data, traders on Tuesday will take cues from the US JOLTS Job Openings data. Apart from this, the US bond yields will drive the USD, which, along with Oil price dynamics, should provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3539
Today Daily Change	-0.0004
Today Daily Change %	-0.03
Today daily open	1.3543

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3489
Daily SMA50	1.3587
Daily SMA100	1.3527
Daily SMA200	1.3432

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3583
Previous Daily Low	1.353
Previous Weekly High	1.3668
Previous Weekly Low	1.3523
Previous Monthly High	1.3668
Previous Monthly Low	1.3301
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.355
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3563
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3521
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3499
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3468
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3574
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3605
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3627

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

Breaking: US and Israel attack Iran, risk aversion to sweep global markets

Early Saturday, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the US had begun “major combat operations” in Iran, following Israel’s pre-emptive missile attacks against Tehran.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.