- USD/CAD trades in positive territory for eight consecutive days near 1.3745 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- The US CPI inflation was hotter than expected in September; Jobless Claims jump to a year-high
- The Canadian Unemployment Rate is estimated to rise from 6.6% in August to 6.7% in September.
The USD/CAD pair extends the rally to around 1.3745 during the early Asian session on Friday. The hotter-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials provide some support to the Greenback ahead of the US September Producer Price Index (PPI) and Canadian job data.
The US inflation was higher than forecast in September, while jobless claims posted an unexpected jump. Data released by the US Department of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% YoY in September, compared to 2.5% in August. The figure came in above the consensus of 2.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, climbed 3.3% YoY in September, above forecast and the previous reading of 3.2%.
Meanwhile, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 4 rose to 258K, up from the previous week's 225K. The figure was above the initial consensus of 230K.
Though the inflation reading was hotter than expected, traders in futures markets increased their bets that the Fed would lower rates by 25 basis points (bps) in the November meeting, pricing in nearly 86%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On the Loonie front, the Canadian job report will be published later on Friday. The Unemployment Rate is projected to rise from 6.6% in August to 6.7% in September. The rising unemployment rate and easing inflation to the target range might trigger the faster and larger interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada (BoC). This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends slide below 1.0300, touches new two-year low
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level since November 2022, below 1.0300 on Thursday. The US Dollar benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere and the upbeat Jobless Claims data, causing the pair to stretch lower.
GBP/USD slumps to multi-month lows below 1.2400 on broad USD strength
Following an earlier recovery attempt, GBP/USD reversed its direction and declined to its weakest level in nearly eight months below 1.2400. The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength on worsening risk mood weighs on the pair as trading conditions normalize after the New Year break.
Gold benefits from risk aversion, climbs above $2,650
Gold gathers recovery momentum and trades at a two-week-high above $2,650 in the American session on Thursday. The precious metal benefits from the sour market mood and the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields.
These 5 altcoins are rallying ahead of $16 billion FTX creditor payout
FTX begins creditor payouts on January 3, in agreement with BitGo and Kraken, per an official announcement. Bonk, Fantom, Jupiter, Raydium and Solana are rallying on Thursday, before FTX repayment begins.
Three Fundamentals: Year-end flows, Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI stand out Premium
Money managers may adjust their portfolios ahead of the year-end. Weekly US Jobless Claims serve as the first meaningful release in 2025. The ISM Manufacturing PMI provides an initial indication ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.