- USD/CAD shows volatility after a weak Employment report.
- Canada’s labor market was squeezed and the wage growth measure decelerated in July.
- The US Dollar declined on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.
The USD/CAD pair delivers volatile moves above the round-level support of 1.3700 after the release of the weak Canadian Employment data for July. Statistics Canada reported that the labor market unexpectedly squeezed by 2.8K. Economists expected fresh addition of 22.5K payrolls against lay-off of 1.4K workers in June. The Unemployment Rate rose steadily by 6.4% and remained lower than estimates of 6.5%.
Weak Canadian labor market data has prompted expectations of more rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Currently, the BoC has delivered two back-to-back rate cuts by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% since June.
Apart from weak payrolls data, annual Average Hourly Wages, a key measure to wage growth that propels consumer spending and eventually influence price pressures, decelerated to 5.2% from the former release of 5.6%. This would also increase speculation of more BoC rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar and bond yields have declined as investors expect that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoting to policy normalization in September appears certain. Market participants are divided about the size and how much interest rates will be reduced this year.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects from a four-day high of 103.50. 10-year US Treasury yields tumble to near 3.94%
According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data shows that traders see a 56.5% chance that interest rates will be reduced by 50 bps in September. For the entire year, data shows a 100 bp reduction in interest rates by the Fed.
Next week, investors will focus on the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday. The inflation data will indicate whether current market expectations for rate cuts are appropriate.
(This story was corrected on August 9 at 13:09 GMT to say in the first paragraph that "The Unemployment Rate rose steadily by 6.4%, remained lower than estimates of 6.5%, not 6.4%).
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains heavy below 1.0550 as focus shifts to US ISM PMI
EUR/USD remians under heavy selling pressure below 1.0550 in early European session on Monday. The pair is dragged down by dovish ECB-speak and a firmer US Dollar following Trump tariffs threat on BRICS-fuelled flight to safety. Investors now look forward to US ISM Manufacturing PMI data due later in the day.
GBP/USD holds losses near 1.2700 on stronger US Dollar
GBP/USD consolidates losses near 1.2700 early Monday, reversing a major part of Friday's positive move. The slide is sponsored by a goodish pickup in the haven demand for the US Dollar, as traders remain wary over the latest Trump tariffs threat on BRICS nations. US ISM PMI is next in focus.
Gold price remains heavily offered amid renewed USD buying interest
Gold price meets with heavy supply on Monday and snaps a four-day winning streak. Rebounding US bond yields help revive the USD demand and weigh on the commodity. Trade war concerns and geopolitical risks do little to lend support to the XAU/USD.
Bitcoin consolidates while ETH, XRP rallies
Bitcoin consolidated on Monday following its recovery from last week's pullback. At the same time, Ethereum and Ripple extended their rallies, driven by investors reallocating capital from BTC to altcoins, signaling the potential for continued upward momentum.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.