- USD/CAD loses ground as Oil prices rise due to escalated tensions in the Middle East.
- A rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has heightened concerns about crude Oil supply.
- The US Dollar depreciates as the Fed may deliver three rate cuts in 2024.
USD/CAD pulls back from an eight-month high of 1.3849 recorded in the previous session, trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Monday. The rise in Oil prices supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and puts downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil trades around $76.80 per barrel at the time of writing. This upside is driven by concerns over a potential escalation in the Middle East following a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel and the United States (US) have attributed to the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, according to Reuters.
Israel's security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government on Sunday to determine the "manner and timing" of a response to the rocket strike, which killed 12 teenagers and children on Saturday.
Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to the cooling inflation and easing labor market conditions in the United States (US), which have fueled expectations of three rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve (Fed), starting in September.
These expectations were bolstered by the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which indicated a modest rise in inflation for June and provided further signs of easing price pressures.
The US PCE Price Index rose by 2.5% year-over-year in June, down slightly from 2.6% in May, meeting market expectations. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.1% after being unchanged in May.
The US Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also climbed to 2.6% in June, consistent with May's increase and above the forecast of 2.5%. The core PCE Price Index rose by 0.2% month-over-month in June, compared to 0.1% in May.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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