In view of the analysts at ING, US President Trump’s address to Congress contained much of what they have come to expect: i) tax cuts for businesses and the middle class ii) $1trn worth of infrastructure spending (financed by public and private partnership) and iii) fairer trade.
Key Quotes
“Last year’s near US$800bn US trade deficit is very much in focus and Trump’s remarks last night regarding unfair international tax structures point to growing acceptance of Paul Ryan’s border tax adjustment (BTA) plan. Beyond the touted benefits of encouraging onshoring and discouraging corporate tax inversions, the BTA is also ear-marked to generate US$100bn of increased tax revenue – which seems essential to pay for corporate tax cuts elsewhere.”
“There is much literature on why a 20% border tax adjustment necessitates a 25% rally in the dollar. The magnitude of the impact will be disputed, but the direction of travel should be pretty clear and keep the dollar supported into key Trump speeches (talk of tax details being released March 13th). The dollar is also being supported by the now 78% probability of Fed March hike – after Fed insider Dudley said the case for a rate hike had become ‘a lot more compelling’. A strong ISM and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, headline PCE, pushing to 2.0% today both point to further dollar strength. DXY to 102.05/10.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold moves to record highs past $3,340 Premium
Gold now gathers extra steam and advances beyond the $3,340 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday, hitting all-time highs amid ongoing worries over escalating US-China trade tensions, a weaker US Dollar and lack of news from Powell's speech.
Australian Dollar receives support from improved global risk mood, US Retail Sales eyed
The Australian Dollar extends its winning streak against the US Dollar for a sixth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the AUD/USD pair holding firm after the release of Australia’s Westpac Leading Index. The index’s six-month annualised growth rate eased to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.
EUR/USD remains in a consolidative range below 1.1400
EUR/USD navigates the latter part of Wednesday’s session with marked gains, although another test of the 1.1400 level remained elusive. The strong bounce in spot came on the back of a marked move lower in the US Dollar, which remained apathetic following the neutral stance from Chair Powell.
Bitcoin stabilizes around $83,000 as China opens trade talks with President Trump’s administration
Bitcoin price stabilizes around $83,500 on Wednesday after facing multiple rejections around the 200-day EMA. Bloomberg reports that China is open to trade talks with President Trump’s administration.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.