Hurricane disruption dragged US payrolls negative, but a big fall in unemployment and significant wage increases make a December rate hike look probable, according to James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING.
Key Quotes
“The US jobs report has thrown up some very interesting figures, most notably the fact payrolls fell 33,000 versus expectations of an 80,000 gain. However we have to take everything with a note of caution given the likelihood of heavy distortions relating to Hurricanes.”
“Despite the softness in payrolls the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.4%. The other big number is the 0.5%MoM jump in wages – the biggest increase since November 2008 – which takes the annual wage growth number up to 2.9%. Note that there were also some upward revisions to monthly wage rates so we may finally be seeing some of the strength in jobs feeding through into inflation pressures.”
“Payrolls will bounce back strongly given the Bureau for Labour Statistics suggests that 1.47mn people were unable to get to work because of storm disruption. Moreover, labour demand indicators remain strong in other reports.”
“This positive overall story on the labour market is only going to strengthen the case for higher interest rates. We already know that the growth outlook is strong – underlined by the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys hitting 13 and 12 year highs respectively this week – and inflation is heading back towards target – next week’s headline CPI expected at 2.1% and core at 1.8%YoY.”
“The arguments justifying higher interest rates is also being broadened with Fed Chair Yellen suggesting “persistently easy monetary policy” could have “adverse implications for financial stability”, while warning of “somewhat rich” asset valuations. Relatively loose financial conditions – a flat yield curve and dollar weakness - have been used as arguments that could justify action by other Fed officials. It therefore seems that the main risk to our December rate hike call is politics and the potential for an economically and market disruptive government shutdown. However, we remain hopeful that this can be avoided clearing the way for another two rate hikes in 2018.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD challenges YTD tops near 1.1170 on Powell
![EUR/USD challenges YTD tops near 1.1170 on Powell](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/money-13797882_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD now picks up extra pace and revisits the 1.1170 region after Chief Powell somewhat “confirmed” a rate cut next month at his speech at Jackson Hole.
GBP/USD reaches new 2024 highs around 1.3200, Dollar plummets
![GBP/USD reaches new 2024 highs around 1.3200, Dollar plummets](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/iStock-170160529_XtraSmall.jpg)
The Greenback is now accelerating its decline and flirts with the area of 2024 low as Chair Powell signals that it is time to adjust monetary policy. GBP/USD picks up extra pace and challenges the 1.3200 region, clinching new 2024 peaks at the same time.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged above $2,500
![Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged above $2,500](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/stacks-of-gold-bars-19033163_XtraSmall.jpg)
The precious metal maintains its bullish stance in place on Friday, climbing above the $2,500 mark per ounce troy as Fed’s Powell signals an imminent rate cut.
Decentraland price is set for a rally after breaking above the descending trendline
![Decentraland price is set for a rally after breaking above the descending trendline](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Cryptocurrencies/Decentraland/Decentraland_XtraSmall.png)
Decentraland (MANA) price broke above the descending trendline and trades up 1.5% as of Friday at $0.291. Additionally, on-chain data support further price gains, as MANA's Exchange Flow Balance shows a negative spike, and the long-to-short ratio stays above one.
Jerome Powell expected to hint at upcoming interest-rate cut in September
![Jerome Powell expected to hint at upcoming interest-rate cut in September](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Resources/Discover/Discover_18_28_XtraSmall.png)
Market participants will closely scrutinize Powell’s speech for any fresh hints on the trajectory of monetary policy, particularly about the magnitude of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut in years.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.