US: Key events ahead

Analysts at Barclays offer their insights on the key US macro data due on the card later today.

Key Quotes:

“We expect durable goods orders to rise by 1.3% m/m in August, driven by a rebound in transportation orders. Within this category, we look for aircraft orders to increase 19.0% m/m, driven primarily by non-defense aircraft orders, which had fallen by 70.8% in July. Orders for motor vehicles and parts are likely to record a modest increase, as indicated by the production data in the August industrial production report. Excluding transportation, we expect durable goods order to be up a more modest 0.1% m/m and look for core capital goods orders to rise 0.3% m/m.

We expect pending home sales to decline 0.5 m/m in August. While mortgage rates have edged lower from the post-election highs, they remain elevated. In addition, mortgage loan applications for purchase have been rather volatile and declined in July and August. Furthermore, traffic of prospective buyers for new homes has slowed in recent months. All these factors taken together lead us to believe that pending home sales are likely to have declined modestly in August.”

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