US: Growth to decelerate significantly in the first half of 2024 – NBF

With the year drawing to a close, economists at the National Bank of Canada take stock of the economic situation and offer their predictions for the coming months.

A challenging year ahead for the US economy?

Our analysis suggests that economic growth in the US is less vigorous than it might seem. As for the future, the few leading economic indicators that have proven their predictive value in previous cycles almost all point in the same direction: that of an economic slowdown in 2024.  While we recognize that the probability of the Fed achieving a soft landing is non-zero, we have our doubts about the arguments underpinning this scenario. That's why our economic forecasts remain significantly less optimistic than the consensus. 

After a strong end to 2023, we expect growth in the US to decelerate significantly in the first half of 2024. We then see the economy tipping into recession around mid-year.