US GDP Q2 second release preview: The past looks better than the future

Jordi Martínez FXStreet

The United States economy has been printing very solid numbers for a while now, but that pretty picture might be slowly getting uglier. Ahead of tomorrow's US Gross Domestic Product second estimation release, we take a look at the US economic activity table which, in words of our Senior Analyst Yohay Elam, shows "a mixed picture" with "the past looking better than the future".

Read Yohay's US GDP preview: Expect a disappointment to down the dollar – FXStreet Surprise Index

Mixed US economic activity table hints potential negative revisions

The table shows mixed results, with plenty of hard-data indicators (lead by Durable Goods & Retail Sales) showing positive trends but the bigger business surveys hinting growing pessimism about the US economy both in the manufacturing and services sector.

That could lead to negative revisions of the 2.1% growth released in the Q2 GDP's first estimation. Check it out:

Gross Domestic Product	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
GDP Annualized	3	2.10%	Neutral	2.47%	3.00%	2.76%
GDP Price Index	3	2.50%	Neutral	1.67%	1.96%	1.93%

Production activity	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
Non-Def Cap Goods exAir	3	0.40%	Up	0.90%	0.62%	0.30%
Durable Goods	2	2.10%	Up	0.93%	0.68%	0.49%
Durable Goods exDef	2	1.40%	Up	1.30%	0.74%	0.41%
Durable Goods exTrans	2	-0.40%	Neutral	0.37%	0.30%	0.09%
Factory Orders MoM	2	0.60%	Neutral	-0.30%	0.10%	-0.13%
Industrial Production MoM	2	-0.20%	Neutral	0.07%	-0.08%	0.01%
Capacity Utilization	1	77.50%	Down	77.83%	78.04%	78.22%

Sales activity	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
Retail Sales Control Group	3	1.00%	Up	0.73%	0.64%	0.36%
Retail Sales MoM	2	0.70%	Up	0.53%	0.60%	0.28%
Retail Sales exAutos MoM	2	1.00%	Up	0.63%	0.64%	0.28%
Business Inventories	1	0.00%	Down	0.27%	0.22%	0.33%
Wholesale Inventories	1	0.00%	Down	0.40%	0.26%	0.49%

Manufacturing Surveys	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
ISM Manufacturing PMI	3	51.20	Down	51.67	52.62	54.50
ISM Prices Paid	2	45.10	Down	48.73	50.10	53.67
Markit Manufacturing PMI	2	49.90	Down	50.30	50.80	52.34
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey	2	16.80	Up	12.97	12.80	11.29
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	1	4.80	Down	0.17	5.68	7.90
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	1	2.70	Down	-5.23	-3.80	1.59
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	1	1.00	Down	-2.67	0.00	3.00
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity	1	-2.00	Down	-3.67	0.60	2.40

Services-related Surveys	Impact	Last	Trend	Last 3	Last 5	Last 10
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	3	53.70	Down	55.23	55.46	57.23
Markit Services PMI	2	50.90	Down	51.80	51.86	53.39
Markit PMI Composite	2	50.90	Down	51.67	51.78	53.25
Chicago PMI	2	44.40	Down	49.43	51.92	57.12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	2	-0.36	Down	-0.14	-0.21	-0.10
ISM - NY Business Conditions Index	1	43.50	Down	47.37	57.26	61.38
NFIB Business Optimism Index	1	104.70	Up	104.33	103.66	103.78

Author

Jordi Martínez

FXStreet

Jordi Martínez is the Editor in Chief at FXStreet, leading editorial operations at the company, before being promoted to the role in 2023, he worked in several editorial positions at FXStreet, including roles as Senior

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