US GDP Q2 second release preview: The past looks better than the future


The United States economy has been printing very solid numbers for a while now, but that pretty picture might be slowly getting uglier. Ahead of tomorrow's US Gross Domestic Product second estimation release, we take a look at the US economic activity table which, in words of our Senior Analyst Yohay Elam, shows "a mixed picture" with "the past looking better than the future". 

Read Yohay's US GDP preview: Expect a disappointment to down the dollar – FXStreet Surprise Index

Mixed US economic activity table hints potential negative revisions

The table shows mixed results, with plenty of hard-data indicators (lead by Durable Goods & Retail Sales) showing positive trends but the bigger business surveys hinting growing pessimism about the US economy both in the manufacturing and services sector.

That could lead to negative revisions of the 2.1% growth released in the Q2 GDP's first estimation. Check it out:

Gross Domestic Product Impact Last Trend Last 3 Last 5 Last 10
GDP Annualized 3 2.10% Neutral 2.47% 3.00% 2.76%
GDP Price Index 3 2.50% Neutral 1.67% 1.96% 1.93%
 
Production activity Impact Last Trend Last 3 Last 5 Last 10
Non-Def Cap Goods exAir 3 0.40% Up 0.90% 0.62% 0.30%
Durable Goods 2 2.10% Up 0.93% 0.68% 0.49%
Durable Goods exDef 2 1.40% Up 1.30% 0.74% 0.41%
Durable Goods exTrans 2 -0.40% Neutral 0.37% 0.30% 0.09%
Factory Orders MoM 2 0.60% Neutral -0.30% 0.10% -0.13%
Industrial Production MoM 2 -0.20% Neutral 0.07% -0.08% 0.01%
Capacity Utilization 1 77.50% Down 77.83% 78.04% 78.22%
 
Sales activity Impact Last Trend Last 3 Last 5 Last 10
Retail Sales Control Group 3 1.00% Up 0.73% 0.64% 0.36%
Retail Sales MoM 2 0.70% Up 0.53% 0.60% 0.28%
Retail Sales exAutos MoM 2 1.00% Up 0.63% 0.64% 0.28%
Business Inventories 1 0.00% Down 0.27% 0.22% 0.33%
Wholesale Inventories 1 0.00% Down 0.40% 0.26% 0.49%
 
Manufacturing Surveys Impact Last Trend Last 3 Last 5 Last 10
ISM Manufacturing PMI 3 51.20 Down 51.67 52.62 54.50
ISM Prices Paid 2 45.10 Down 48.73 50.10 53.67
Markit Manufacturing PMI 2 49.90 Down 50.30 50.80 52.34
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey 2 16.80 Up 12.97 12.80 11.29
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 1 4.80 Down 0.17 5.68 7.90
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 1 2.70 Down -5.23 -3.80 1.59
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1 1.00 Down -2.67 0.00 3.00
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity 1 -2.00 Down -3.67 0.60 2.40
 
Services-related Surveys Impact Last Trend Last 3 Last 5 Last 10
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 3 53.70 Down 55.23 55.46 57.23
Markit Services PMI 2 50.90 Down 51.80 51.86 53.39
Markit PMI Composite 2 50.90 Down 51.67 51.78 53.25
Chicago PMI 2 44.40 Down 49.43 51.92 57.12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 2 -0.36 Down -0.14 -0.21 -0.10
ISM - NY Business Conditions Index 1 43.50 Down 47.37 57.26 61.38
NFIB Business Optimism Index 1 104.70 Up 104.33 103.66 103.78
 
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