US GDP Q2 preview, first estimate to accelerate

Analysts at Nomura noted the next key data release from the US.

Key Quotes:

"Q2 GDP, first estimate: We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.9% q-o-q saar in Q2 from 1.4% in Q1.

The Q1 growth was on the back of a solid 2.6% increase in final sales, which were boosted by a sharp 22.6% increase in private investment in structures. In Q2, we expect only a modest increase structures investment.

The strong jump in Q1 was driven by an outsized gain in investment in mining, exploration, shafts, and wells. Based our analysis, it is unlikely to see another unusually strong jump in Q2 in this subcategory, although we still expect robust growth considering the persistent upward trend in active rig counts and drilling support activity.

Moreover, we expect some acceleration in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) relative to Q1. The growth in non-energy goods spending has been only modest during Q2. In particular, given slowing light vehicle sales, spending on autos will likely remain subdued in Q2, which deducted 0.6pp from PCE growth in Q1.

On the other hand, incoming data suggest service spending increased steadily and would likely contribute robustly to Q2 PCE growth. Elsewhere, we think inventories likely contributed moderately to topline Q2 GDP growth in as they recover from unsustainable weakness in Q1 that reduced Q1 growth by 1.1pp.

A soft patch in Q2 GDP would be weak residential construction growth. Incoming data suggest multifamily housing construction decelerated notably although single family construction increased steadily in Q2. On balance, we expect a modest drag on growth from residential investment in Q2. Altogether, our topline forecast of 2.9% suggests 2.2% average growth in H1 and 2.2% average y-o-y growth in 2017. This is consistent with our view that the economy continues to grow above potential, a trend we expect to continue in the medium term."

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