US Dollar edged lower after November's CPI, focus shifts to Fed decision
- The DXY Index is trading with losses below the 104.00 mark.
- US November showed no surprises and confirmed a deceleration.
- Investors await Fed Interest Rate Decision due this Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) is currently undergoing a slight retreat as the DXY index trades at 103.85 after the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from the US, which fueled dovish bets on the Federal Reserve.
Against a backdrop of cooling inflation and despite a strong labor market, the Fed appears susceptible to veering toward a more dovish stance. In that sense, Fed officials are not ruling out further policy tightening, so markets will closely monitor the bank’s stance at the upcoming meeting on Wednesday.
Daily Market Movers: US dollar dips after CPI data, markets see rate cuts in May 2024
- The US Dollar trades lower as investors assess the impact of US CPI data and dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
- In November, the US saw a predicted easing in inflation, according to the CPI. The CPI recorded a modest rise of 0.1% for the month. Compared to October's 3.2%, the annual inflation rate slightly decreased to 3.1%.
- Core CPI reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics remained unchanged at 4% YoY, matching both the previous and expected figures.
- Meanwhile, US bond yields are down with 2-year, 5-year and 10-year yields at 4.71%, 4.23%, and 4.22%, respectively.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, a rate hike is not expected in Wednesday’s meeting, with the market betting on rate cuts likely to happen in May 2024.
Technical Analysis: DXY bulls hold resilient, indicators still weak
The indicators on the daily chart reflect a bit of a mixed picture for the pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in negative territory with a negative slope, indicating diminishing buying momentum. This is reaffirmed by the status of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which is registering decreasing green bars.
Bucking short-term cues, the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) showcase a broader bullish trend. The pair remains above the 20-day SMA and crucially above the 200-day SMA, highlighting that bulls have the upper hand in a wider time frame despite temporary bearish leanings.
However, the pair's position below the 100-day SMA suggests a note of caution and potentially a near-term consolidation or pullback phase. The ongoing action on the charts can be seen as bears taking a breather, while bulls remain resilient.
Support levels: 103.70 (20-day SMA), 103.50, 103.30.
Resistance levels: 104.50 (100-day SMA), 104.50, 104.70.
Interest rates FAQs
What are interest rates?
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
How do interest rates impact currencies?
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
How do interest rates influence the price of Gold?
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
What is the Fed Funds rate?
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Author
Patricio Martín
FXStreet
Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.
