US Dollar set to close off on a high note this Friday with EU and US PMI's revealing US Dollar exceptionalism being back in play

The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds on to intraday gains after both European and US PMI release.
The Greenback sees support for higher levels with the economic gap with Europe widening in favor for the US.
The US Dollar Index popped above 108.00 briefly before fading back to 107.50.

The US Dollar (USD) printed a fresh two years high, pushing the DXY US Dollar Index above 108.00, after Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone signaled that the region could be on the brink of a recession. The data weighed heavily on the Euro (EUR) – the main foreign currency forming the DXY – as it could mean more interest rate cuts ahead by the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to support growth.

Earlier on Friday, the final reading for the German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was downwardly revised to 0.1%, which means that the Eurozone’s largest economy barely grew in the third quarter.

Adding to the Euro weakness, the US Dollar keeps getting support from safe-haven flows due to the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine. According to Yahoo News, Russia has put a US military base in Poland at the top of its priority list of targets for the next retaliations.

The US economic calendar did not bring much to the table, after the US Purchase Managers Index (PMI) release for November became even more important after the European ones were released this Friday. All US PMI numbers were a small upbeat surprise on expectations and confirmed that the US is outpacing the Eurozone again. Seeing the elevated move already on the day, markets did not really piled back into the Greenback as seen earlier this Friday.

Daily digest market movers: US PMI supports current levels

European PMI data presented a bleak picture for the Eurozone and its main economies. The Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 48.1 from 50, missing expectations and signaling that the region’s economy is contracting. The data suggested that the services sector fell into contraction, while the downturn in the manufacturing sector gained traction.
Individual PMI data for both France and Germany also broadly missed expectations. For Germany, the data suggests that economic activity contracted at the quickest rate in nine months, while in France the contraction was the steepest since January.
Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the third quarter came in at 0.1%, downwardly revised from 0.2% in the preliminary reading.
At 14:45 GMT, S&P Global has released the preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading for the US:
- The Manufacturing component remains in contraction, though up to 48.8 from the previous 48.5 in October.
- The Services PMI was an upbeat surprise, to 57.0, beating the 55.3 estimate and up from the 55.0 seen in October.
The University of Michigan survey will publish its final November reading at 15:00:
- Consumer Sentiment is expected to come in a bit better at 73.7 against the preliminary reading of 73.0.
- The Inflation expectations are expected to remain at 3.1%.
European and US equities are in a volatile ride this Friday, with both sides up in the green, near 0.5% on average.
The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the December 18 meeting by 55.9%. A 44.1% chance is for rates to remain unchanged. While the interest-rate cut scenario is still the most probable, traders have pared back some of the rate-cut bets compared with a week ago, when a rate-cut possibility was at 62%.
The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.42%, slowely making its way back up to the high printed on Friday last week at 4.50%.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Current levels are okay

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is edging up, sparked by those European PMI numbers that reveal the whole Eurozone is in contraction. Pending US PMI data to be released later today, it looks like the performance gap between Europe and the US just got bigger in favor of the United States. Look out for some profit-taking ahead of the weekend, which might trigger a fade by the US closing bell on Friday evening.

With the fresh breakout, a daily close above 107.00 will be key now before heading into the weekend. A fresh two-year high is now seen at 108.07, which is the statistical level to beat next. Further up, the 109.00 big figure level is the next one in line to look at.

The first level on the downside is 105.89, the pivotal level since May 2. A touch lower, the pivotal 105.53 (April 11 high) should avoid any downturns towards 104.00. Should the DXY fall all the way towards 104.00, the big figure and the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 103.95 should catch any falling knife formation.

US Dollar Index: Daily Chart

Central banks FAQs

What does a central bank do?

Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.

What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target?

A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.

Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates?

A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.

Is there a president or head of a central bank?

Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

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