- US Nonfarm Payrolls report from April underperformed, showing a lower-than-expected increase.
- The odds of a rate cut in September increased, which seems to be applying pressure on the USD.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is visiting the 105 level with sharp losses at the end of the trading week. This comes after Friday’s report of weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures from April, which made markets dump the USD.
The US economy is exhibiting mixed signs of progression with robust demand and a tight labor market exhibiting slow yet significant wage growth, contributing to inflation. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious about inflation's uncertain trajectory, emphasizing that restrictive monetary policy has curtailed economic overheating. On Friday, weak labor market figures made markets raise the odds of interest rate cuts in September.
Daily digest market movers: DXY down on weak NFPs
- US NFP report indicated an increase of 175K jobs in April, lower than the expected 243K, and a decrease from March's revised 315K growth.
- Unemployment Rate rises from 3.8% to 3.9%.
- Wage inflation, as shown by Average Hourly Earnings, fell to 3.9% YoY from 4.1%.
- Market predictions for a Fed rate reduction by September have intensified due to the weak labor market figures.
- US Treasury bond yields plunged with the 2-year yield at 4.80%, while the 5-year and 10-year yields declined to 4.50% and 4.58%, respectively.
DXY technical analysis: DXY displays an overall bullish bias despite imminent selling pressure
The technical outlook of DXY primarily mirrors a bullish dominance with a lurking bearish comeback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) records a negative slope in negative territory, hinting at heightened selling momentum by bears. The relentless bearish push has, however, proven insufficient as the pair still trades above the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reports rising red bars, hinting that bears are gaining ground. The bearish signal should be taken seriously as the sellers pushed the index below the 20-day SMA. However, the longer-term SMAs remain as strong supports to defend the overall bullish outlook.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.