- The US Dollar gives back parts of last week's gains at the start of a holiday-shortened week due to Thanksgiving.
- President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Scott Bessent for the role of Treasury Secretary.
- The US Dollar Index falls below 107.00 and is looking for support near 106.70.
The US Dollar (USD) fades by nearly 1% at the start of the week after President-elect Donald Trump confirmed his nomination for Scott Bessent over the weekend for the Treasury Secretary in his upcoming cabinet. Bessent is considered a fiscal hawk, targeting a budget deficit of 3% of GDP by 2028 while indicating that he is backing tariff and tax cut plans. Investors seem to be taking this nomination as mildly positive as it eases some concerns regarding the impact of Trump’s fiscal plans.
The US economic calendar is facing a bit of an odd week with the public holiday on Thursday for Thanksgiving. All US data for Thursday and Friday has been moved to Wednesday, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for October, the second estimate of the third quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the weekly jobless claims as most influential data points. A rather soft start for this Monday with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for November due.
Daily digest market movers: Chicago Fed Activity not moving
- Monday’s calendar kicked off with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. The actual number came in at -0.4 against the previous month’s number at -0.28.
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for November will follow a bit later at 15:30 GMT. There isn’t any consensus forecast either, and the October reading was at -3.
- Equities are broadly in the green across the globe. Japanese indices already closed off higher on the day, near 1% gains on average. European equities and US futures are in a positive tone, up around 0.50% on average.
- The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the December 18 meeting by 56.1%. A 43.9% chance is for rates to remain unchanged.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.29%, sliding further away from the high printed two weeks ago at 4.50%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Hawkish Treasuy secretary vs dovish Fed
The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased somewhat during the Asian trading session on the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent for the Treasury position. A knee-jerk reaction could be taking place as this weakness has been fully erased and might see the DXY advance further. On the upside, 107.35 remains key before looking for any levels above 108.00.
The fresh two-year high at 108.07 seen on November 22 is the first level to beat next. Further up, the 109.00 big figure level is the next one in line to look at. The support from October 2023 at 109.36 is certainly a level to watch out for on the topside.
Support comes in around 106.52, the double top from May. A touch lower, the pivotal 105.53 (April 11 high) should avoid any downturns towards 104.00. Should the DXY fall all the way towards 104.00, the big figure and the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 103.98 should catch any falling knife formation.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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