- US Retail Sales saw a slight uptick in June.
- USD's overall outlook still remains skewed to the downside due to dovish bets on the Fed.
- Markets remain confident about a September cut.
On Tuesday, the US Dollar, as measured by the DXY index, saw some gains following promising results in June’s Retail Sales figures reported during the European session.
That being said, the US economic outlook shows indications of disinflation, bolstering the markets' confidence in a rate cut in September. Federal Reserve officials, however, are maintaining a cautious stance, emphasizing their reliance on data before making any significant moves.
Daily digest market movers: DXY sees some light following encouraging Retail Sales, outlook still negative
- As the week began, the USD found itself under pressure due to the effect of the previous week's inflation statistics, which fueled confidence among traders for a likely rate cut in September.
- On the data front, retail sales remained flat at 0.0%, though the previously reported increase of 0.1% was revised upward to 0.3%.
- Retail Sales ex Autos rose by 0.4% after the 0.1% decline in May. That same -0.1% has been revised to 0.1%.
- The CME FedWatch Tool broadly supports the notion of a rate cut in September, with the odds currently standing over 85% for a 25-basis-point cut.
DXY Technical Outlook: Bearish attitude steady while bulls make a stride to recover the 200-day SMA
The outlook for the USD remains bearish despite the DXY index regaining the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both deep in negative terrain, suggesting it’s the seller's time now.
Despite losing more than 0.80% towards the end of last week, a slight upward correction may occur. Nonetheless, the bullish momentum gained on Tuesday is fragile, making the overall technical outlook decidedly bearish.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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