- US Dollar recovers following last Friday’s gains.
- Inflation data takes center stage, CPI expected to show moderation.
- Fed easing expectations have steadied with market pricing in less aggressive cuts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the US Dollar against a basket of six currencies, extended its recovery on Monday ahead of key inflation data releases this week. Following the mixed labor market figures reported last Friday, the focus shifts to upcoming inflation data, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures expected to show moderation. Technical analysis indicates the potential for further US Dollar gains in the near term.
Despite positive growth indicators, the US economy faces potential risks. While the economy remains strong, the market may be overly optimistic in pricing future interest rate cuts.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar continues recovering while market digests mixed NFPs
- US Dollar continues to make gains after last Friday’s dovish Fed comments and weaker-than-expected jobs data initially saw a sell-off.
- Greenback has staged a strong recovery and posted bullish engulfing patterns against every major currency except JPY and CHF.
- August CPI data will be reported on Wednesday with headline inflation expected at 2.6% YoY vs. 2.9% in July. Core inflation is expected to remain steady at 3.2% YoY.
- PPI data will be reported on Thursday with headline inflation expected at 1.7% YoY vs. 2.2% in July.
- Fed easing expectations have steadied with odds of a 50 bps cut this month falling to 20-25%. The market is still pricing in 100-125 bps of Fed easing by year-end.
- No Fed speakers are scheduled until Chair Powell’s press conference on September 18.
DXY technical outlook: DXY seeks 101.60 resistance
Indicators show some momentum but stay negative, striving to reclaim the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 101.60. A breakout above this level signals a buying opportunity and enhances the short-term outlook.
Support levels exist at 101.30, 101.15 and 101.00. Resistance lies at 101.80, 102.00 and 102.30.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0550 after mixed US data
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.0550 in the American session. Although the US Dollar struggles to gather strength following mixed macroeconomic data releases, the risk-averse market environment doesn't allow the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD pressured toward 1.2600, eyes on US data and Fedspeak
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.2650 on Thursday. The pair's underperformance could be attributed to a risk-aversion market environment. Traders stay cautious amid rife geopolitical tensions ahead of mid-tier US data and Fedspeak.
Gold extends gains beyond $2,660 amid rising geopolitical risks
Gold extends its bullish momentum further above $2,660 on Thursday. XAU/USD rises for the fourth straight day, sponsored by geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine war. US data and Fedspeak are next in focus.
BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $97,852 on Thursday, and the technical outlook suggests a possible continuation of the rally to $100,000. BTC futures have surged past the $100,000 price mark on Deribit, and Lookonchain data shows whales are accumulating.
A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era
The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating. These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.