- US Dollar DXY kicks off the week with a slump after a brief rebound at the end of last week but managed to clear daily losses.
- The anticipated exit of President Joe Biden from the presidential race invigorates investors' risk appetite which might limit the upside.
- Dovish Fed expectations might also present a challenge to the green currency.
As the week opened, the US Dollar, measured by the DXY index, exhibited a decline towards the 104.30 area and then recovered to 104.40. US President Joe Biden's expected departure from the presidential race has favored former President Donald Trump, and this upheaval has spurred investors to lean towards riskier assets. Complementing this, the expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve has resulted in an abrupt round of US Dollar selling. Further indicators to look out for during the week are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 revisions and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which are widely anticipated to add an element of volatility in the USD.
Although the US economy is indeed showing early signs of disinflation, market confidence in a favorable September rate cut from the Federal Reserve remains steady. Even so, Fed officials express a strained demeanor and emphasize the importance of adhering to a data-dependant approach before rushing into any hasty interest rate reductions.
Daily digest market movers: DXY has a bumpy ride due to Fed policy outlook and impending US elections
- The outlook for the Fed's policy and the unsettled politics of the US election continue to be the two major catalysts driving the USD's trajectory.
- As former President Trump becomes the favorite, after Joe Biden’s extir, investors will focus on three broad areas: immigration, tariffs, and fiscal policies. So markets will keep an eye on Trump’s hints about its economic plans.
- The CME FedWatch Tool sheds light on the widespread anticipation about the September rate cut as investors are pricing in a 25 bps cut.
- The upcoming GDP and PCE data are likely to shape the USD dynamics for the week ahead as they will guide markets on the next Fed moves.
DXY Technical outlook: Bearish signs persist despite attempts to rise above 200-day SMA
The DXY index might have tallied minor gains last week, but the bearish outlook remains unchanged, primarily as the index faces a tough time ascending above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.30. The bearish stance is further supported by the daily indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which remain in negative area, suggesting a continuation of downside momentum.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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