- DXY climbs after better-than-expected jobless claims data.
- PPI figures come in softer, raising concerns about weakening demand.
- Markets await updates on US diplomatic talks in Russia over Ukraine ceasefire.
- Trump threatens 200% tariffs on European wines and champagnes.
The US Dollar (USD) bounced back on Thursday, reclaiming the 104.00 level as traders reacted to softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data and positive jobless claims figures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) initially jumped following the data release but later pared gains as investors weighed the implications of slowing inflation and potential demand concerns. Meanwhile, United States (US) diplomats arrived in Russia for ceasefire talks over Ukraine, and President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by threatening a 200% tariff on European wines and champagnes.
Daily digest market movers: Mixed economic signals, geopolitical tensions rise
- The US weekly jobless claims report showed initial claims at 220,000, lower than the expected 225,000. Continuing claims dropped to 1.87 million, below the forecast of 1.90 million.
- The February Producer Price Index (PPI) came in weaker than expected, with the headline monthly figure at 0.0% vs. 0.3% expected, and the core PPI contracting by 0.1%.
- On a yearly basis, the headline PPI eased to 3.2%, below the projected 3.3%, while the core PPI declined to 3.4% from 3.6%.
- Markets initially viewed the softer inflation data as positive for the US dollar, but gains were quickly reversed as traders interpreted weaker PPI figures as a sign of softening demand.
- US stocks moved lower after PPI data, with sentiment further pressured by Trump's latest trade threats targeting European imports.
- The CME FedWatch tool indicates that markets widely expect the Fed to maintain rates in the March 19 meeting, while rate cut probabilities for May and June continue to rise.
DXY technical outlook: Oversold bounce meets resistance
The US dollar index (DXY) recovered from recent multi-month lows, climbing back above 104.00 as traders reassessed oversold conditions. Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate a short-term correction, though selling pressure remains dominant after last week’s sharp decline. Key resistance stands near 104.50, while support rests at 103.50, with further downside possible if sellers regain control.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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