US Dollar edges lower as investors wait for debt ceiling deal to be finalized

The US Dollar (USD) finds it difficult to preserve its bullish momentum on Tuesday as investors move toward risk-sensitive assets on hopes of the US debt-ceiling bill being finalized in the next couple of days. The US Dollar Index, which touched a fresh multi-month high above 104.50 earlier in the day, was last seen trading near 104.00. 

The USD's valuation is likely to continue to be impacted by risk perception ahead of the highly-anticipated labor market data that will be published later in the week.

On Tuesday, the House Rules Committee is scheduled to vote on the 99-page bill that US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy agreed on to suspend the debt-ceiling before sending it to the House floor for a final vote on Wednesday.

Daily digest market movers: US Dollar struggles to find demand on Tuesday 

• Consumer sentiment in the US weakened slightly in May with the Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence Index edging lower to 102.3 from 103.7 in April (revised from 101.3). The Present Situation Index declined to 148.6 from 151.8 and the Consumer Expectations Index stayed virtually unchanged at 71.5. Finally, the one-year consumer inflation expectations ticked down to 6.1% in May from 6.2% in April.
• Fuelled by the impressive performance of technology stocks, the Nasdaq Composite Index opened nearly 1% higher following the three-day weekend. 
• The sharp selloff seen in energy shares, however, weigh on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes after the opening bell on Tuesday. 
• House prices in the US rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis in March, the monthly data published by the US Federal Housing Finance Agency showed on Tuesday. This reading followed February's increase of 0.7% (revised from 0.5%) and came in better than the market expectation of +0.2%.
• US Treasury bond yields opened lower on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year yield was last seen losing more than 1% on the day near 3.7%. Nevertheless, the CME Group FedWatch Tool still shows that markets are pricing a less than 40% probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving its policy rate unchanged in June.
• On Sunday, US President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement to temporarily suspend the debt-limit to avoid a US debt default. The House of Representatives and Senate still need to approve the deal, which will suspend the $31.4 trillion debt-ceiling until January 1, 2025, in coming days. 
• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday that inflation in the US, as measured by the change in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 4.4% on a yearly basis in April from 4.2% in March.
• The annual Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, edged higher to 4.6%, compared to the market expectation of 4.6%. 
• Further details of the BEA's publication showed that Personal Income increased 0.4% on a monthly basis while Personal Spending rose 0.8%.
• Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC on Friday that PCE Price Index data underscore the slow progress on inflation. "It's important for the Fed not to under tighten the monetary policy," Mester added.
• On Thursday, the ADP will release the private sector employment data ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May on Friday.

Technical analysis: US Dollar Index trades near critical important pivot level

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated toward 60 early Tuesday after touching 70 on Monday, suggesting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is staging a technical correction rather than turning bearish. 104.00 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the November-February downtrend), however, aligns as a key technical level. A daily close below that level could attract USD sellers and open the door for an extended slide toward 103.00, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located.

If DXY continues to use 104.00 as support, buyers are likely to remain interested. Additionally, the bullish cross seen in the 20-day and the 50-day SMAs confirms the bullish bias. On the upside, 104.50 (daily high) aligns as interim hurdle ahead of 105.00 (psychological level, static level) and 105.60 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

What is US Dollar Index (DXY)?

The US Dollar Index, also known as DXY or USDX, is a benchmark index that was established by the US Federal Reserve in 1973. DXY is widely used as a tool measuring the US Dollar (USD) value in global markets. The index is calculated by measuring the US Dollar’s performance against a basket of six foreign currencies, the Euro, the Japanese Yen (JPY), Swedish Krona (SEK), the British Pound (GBP), the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

With 57.6%, the Euro has the biggest weight in the index followed by the JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%). Hence, a sharp decline in the EUR/USD pair could help the US Dollar Index rise even if the US Dollar weakens against some of the other currencies in the basket.