US Dollar Index retreats from two-decade high on mixed concerns, US PCE Inflation eyed


  • US Dollar Index snaps six-day uptrend as bulls take a breather at multi-year high.
  • Cautious mood ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, off in Japan challenge DXY upside.
  • Risk catalysts, hawkish Fed and upbeat details US GDP keep buyers hopeful.

US Dollar Index (DXY) extends its pullback from a 20-year high towards 103.50 during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the greenback gauge consolidates recent gains amid the absence of bond moves and cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Showa Day Holiday in Japan limits the bond moves in Asia and allows the greenback buyers to pause at the highest levels since 2002. Also challenging the DXY are the mixed concerns raised after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release.

The DXY rose for the sixth consecutive day to refresh a multi-year high on Thursday even after the Q1 2022 US GDP dropped to -1.4% from 6.9% prior, versus the 1.1% forecast. The reason could be linked to the details concerning the personal consumption, inventories and net trade which flashed positive signs.

Despite the mixed data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool showed around a 96% probability of a 0.50% rate hike during the May monthly meeting. Also favoring the DXY bulls are the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data.

Read: US inflation expectations brace for fresh all-time high ahead of US PCE Price Index

It’s worth noting that the greenback’s safe-haven demand, amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis and China’s covid woes, add to the US Dollar Index strength.

Even so, the recently sluggish markets and an absence of Japanese traders, not to forget fears of disappointment from the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for March, expected to ease to 5.3% YoY versus 5.4% prior, weigh on the DXY prices of late.

Moving on, the DXY is likely to remain firmer amid hawkish Fed and risk-off mood. However, any disappointment from the US data may activate the much-awaited pullback ahead of the May Fed meeting.

Technical analysis

Although overbought RSI the year 2017 peak of 103.82 probes the DXY bulls, the US Dollar Index downside becomes elusive until the quote drops below a three-month-old immediate support line, near 102.30 by the press time.

Dollar Index Spot

Overview
Today last price 103.49
Today Daily Change -0.18
Today Daily Change % -0.17
Today daily open 103.67
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 100.59
Daily SMA50 99.03
Daily SMA100 97.5
Daily SMA200 95.67
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 103.94
Previous Daily Low 102.94
Previous Weekly High 101.34
Previous Weekly Low 99.81
Previous Monthly High 99.41
Previous Monthly Low 96.63
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 103.56
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 103.32
Daily Pivot Point S1 103.09
Daily Pivot Point S2 102.52
Daily Pivot Point S3 102.1
Daily Pivot Point R1 104.09
Daily Pivot Point R2 104.52
Daily Pivot Point R3 105.09

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades on the back foot near 1.0600

EUR/USD trades on the back foot near 1.0600

EUR/USD is trading near 1.0600 in Tuesday's European trading hours, finding fresh sellers amid a pause in the US Dollar corrective decline. The pair remains cautious amid increased dovish ECB rate cut bets and geopolitical risks. ECB and Fed policymakers' speeches eyed. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD struggles below 1.2700, awaits Bailey's testimony

GBP/USD struggles below 1.2700, awaits Bailey's testimony

GBP/USD struggles below 1.2700 in European trading on Tuesday, lacking a bullish conviction amid a steady US Dollar and as investors opt to wait for the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearings before placing aggressive directional bets. 

GBP/USD News
Gold could run into sellers at $2,655 on the road to recovery

Gold could run into sellers at $2,655 on the road to recovery

Gold price extends the recovery into Asian trading on Tuesday, reversing half the previous week’s decline. The focus remains on the upcoming speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.   

Gold News
Chiliz Price Forecast: Targeting a 40% upswing ahead

Chiliz Price Forecast: Targeting a 40% upswing ahead

Chiliz (CHZ)  price continues to trade in green on Tuesday after rallying more than 14% in the previous day. The technical outlook suggests a further gain of 40%, and CHZ’s open interest is also rising, indicating an influx of additional money. 

Read more
The week ahead: Powell stumps the US stock rally as Bitcoin surges, as we wait Nvidia earnings, UK CPI

The week ahead: Powell stumps the US stock rally as Bitcoin surges, as we wait Nvidia earnings, UK CPI

The mood music is shifting for the Trump trade. Stocks fell sharply at the end of last week, led by big tech. The S&P 500 was down by more than 2% last week, its weakest performance in 2 months, while the Nasdaq was lower by 3%. The market has now given back half of the post-Trump election win gains.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures