- The US Dollar loses ground as the Fed may cut interest rates in September.
- CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggests a 91.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in September.
- US President Joe Biden abandoned his re-election bid and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to face Republican Donald Trump.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, edges lower after two days of gains, trading around 104.20 during the early European hours on Monday.
The dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy stance puts pressure on the Greenback. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the markets show a 91.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September Fed meeting, up from 90.3% a week earlier.
US President Joe Biden abandoned his re-election bid on Sunday under growing pressure from his fellow Democrats and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's candidate to face Republican Donald Trump in the November election, according to Reuters.
Read this article: US President Joe Biden stands down from reelection, endorses Kamala Harris
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated on Friday that the long-term trends that caused declines in neutral interest rates before the pandemic continue to prevail. Williams noted, "My own Holston-Laubach-Williams estimates for r-star in the United States, Canada, and the Euro area are about the same level as they were before the pandemic," according to Bloomberg.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned earlier this week that the three US inflation readings of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that inflation is on course to meet the Fed’s target sustainably, suggesting that a shift to interest rate cuts may not be far off.
Traders await the release of Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data later this week to gain fresh insights into the economic conditions of the United States (US).
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains near 1.0900 amid weaker US Dollar
EUR/USD defends gains below 1.0900 in the European session on Monday. The US Dollar weakens, as risk sentiment improves, supporting the pair. The focus remains on the US political updates and mid-tier US data for fresh trading impetus.
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2900 despite risk recovery
GBP/USD is keeping its range play intact above 1.2900 in the European session on Monday. The pair fails to take advantage of the recovery in risk sentiment and broad US Dollar weakness, as traders stay cautious ahead of key US event risks later this week.
Gold price remains on edge on firm prospects of Trump’s victory
Gold price exhibits uncertainty near key support of $2,400 in Monday’s European session. The precious metal remains on tenterhooks amid growing speculation that Donald Trump-led-Republicans will win the US presidential elections in November.
Solana could cross $200 if these three conditions are met
Solana corrects lower at around $180 and halts its rally towards the psychologically important $200 level early on Monday. The Ethereum competitor has noted a consistent increase in the number of active and new addresses in its network throughout July.
Election volatility and tech earnings take centre stage
/stock-market-graph-gm532464153-55981218_XtraSmall.jpg)
The US Dollar managed to end the week higher as Trump Trades ensued. Safe-havens CHF and JPY were also higher while activity currencies such as NOK and NZD underperformed.