- The US Dollar at Monday's low ahead of Trump and Putin on Tuesday.
- US yields are looking for direction ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar Index dips to lower end of its range after US Retail Sales data on Monday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is getting ready for one the most important phone calls in nearly a decade history while the biggest central bank is considering its next steps in monetary policy this week. At the time of writing on Monday, the DXY index edges lower and trades near 103.40 after the United States (US) Retail Sales data release for February.
On the geopolitical front, a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled on Tuesday, with the two parties to discuss territory and to divide up certain assets, according to President Trump on Sunday at Airforce One, Bloomberg reported.
The second big development is in German politics, with a vote on a €1 trillion spending package on Tuesday to boost Europe’s weapon industry, which would spill over into the whole European industry. If an agreement and backing can be reached with the Greens, a two-thirds majority would be present to get the plan through the German Bundestag.
On the economic data front, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, where every voting Fed member will be penciling in their projection of where the central bank’s policy rate will be in the near and medium term. Ahead of the Fed’s rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, US Retail Sales for February saw a dreadful revision while current Retail Sales fell flat.
Daily digest market movers: Headline pressure as of Tuesday
- President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as the US presses for an end to fighting in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. On Sunday, during a flight on Air Force One, President Trump confirmed that the discussion will be about territory and dividing up certain assets, and that there is "a very good chance" for a deal.
- At 12:30 GMT, US Retail Sales for February came out:
- The monthly figure came in at 0.2%, missing the 0.7% expected, from the previous 1.2% contraction in January (downwardly revised from -0.9%).
- The yearly number came in 3.1% against the previous 3.9% (downwardly revised from 4.2%).
- At the same time, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for March took a beating, contracting by 20, missing the small 1.9 contraction expected, coming from a positive 5.7 in February.
- Equities holding on to cautious gains this Monday while the European equities are outperforming US ones.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool sees a 99.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. The chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting currently stand at 27.5%.
- The US 10-year yield trades around 4.28%, off its near five-month low of 4.10% printed on March 4.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: It is gonna go hard
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is stuck in a range between 103.18 and 103.99. However, seeing the geopolitical risk events and the Fed decision this week, a breakout looks inevitable. Watch out for any false breaks and stick to clear technical levels that make sense, such as the 105.00 round level on the upside and the 101.90 on the downside.
Upside risk is a rejection at 104.00 that could result in more downturn. If bulls can avoid that, look for a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.01. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, will present as caps.
On the downside, the 103.00 round level could be considered a bearish target in case US yields roll off again, with even 101.90 not unthinkable if markets further capitulate on their long-term US Dollar holdings.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
(This story was corrected on March 17 at 12:46GMT to say that the DXY trades near 103.60 after the United States (US) Retail Sales data release for February, not before)
(This story was corrected on March 17 at 13:05GMT to say that "the yearly number came in 3.1% against the previous 3.9% (downwardly revised from 4.2%), not " the yearly number was at 4.2% previously and fell to 3.1% while that 4.2% previously got revised to 3.9%.")
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