The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), will be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Friday, September 29 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of seven major banks.

Core PCE is expected at 3.9% year-on-year vs. 4.2% in August. On a monthly basis, it is seen steady at 0.2%.

Deutsche Bank

We expect core PCE to hold on to +0.2% MoM gains, which would have the effect of lowering the YoY growth rate by a little over 30 bps (to 3.9%). 

ING

We are also aware that the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, could come in a little higher than the market is forecasting. The core PCE deflator could come in a little higher than the market is forecasting. We look for a 0.3% MoM increase in prices, similar to the CPI report, whereas the consensus is for a more benign 0.2% MoM print.

TDS

We expect core PCE inflation to register a third consecutive 0.2% MoM increase in August; undershooting the core CPI's stronger 0.3% gain. The YoY rate likely also fell to 3.9%, while we expect the key core svcs ex-housing series to slow to 0.2% MoM following July's 0.5% surge.

NBF

The annual core PCE deflator may have progressed 0.5% in August, a result which should translate into a three-tick increase of the 12-month rate to 3.9%.

SocGen

We forecast a more modest decline in US core PCE to 3.9% YoY.

Citi

Elements of 0.28% MoM US core CPI in August but some softer details of PPI data lead Citi Research to forecast a more modest 0.14% MoM increase in core PCE inflation. Core services prices ex-housing, which rose a solid 0.37% MoM in CPI, should rise 0.17% MoM in PCE inflation while goods prices should decline modestly as in CPI. Shelter prices should continue to slow over the coming months, but this will have less of a disinflationary impact on PCE inflation than on CPI. Meanwhile, headline PCE inflation should rise 0.4% MoM due to higher energy prices and rebound modestly to 3.4% YoY.

Wells Fargo

We forecast the PCE deflator increased 0.4% in August, and the core PCE deflator rose 0.2%. This, along with our forecasts for personal income to rise 0.5% and personal spending to rise 0.5% in the month, should bring real disposable income growth back to the black. 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.

Gold News
Geopolitics back on the radar

Geopolitics back on the radar

Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.

Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures