US: An underwhelming jobs report with government shrinkage featuring in Feb payrolls – UOB Group

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The latest US Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last Fri (7 Mar) was weaker than expected as jobs creation came in below projections with a surprise uptick in the unemployment rate while wage growth was within estimates, UOB Group's Senior Economist Alvin Liew notes.

US reports a slightly weaker-than-expected jobs creation

"The US reported a slightly weaker-than-expected jobs creation at 151,000 in Feb (versus Bloomberg est 160,000) while unemployment rate also surprised with an uptick to 4.1% (from 4.0% in January). Job creation was still broad-based, but surprisingly, professional services and leisure recorded back-to-back losses, while government hiring slowed visibly as BLS reported that federal employment fell by -10,000 in February."

"After starting the year at a re-accelerating pace, wage growth continued to rise but within expectations at 0.3% m/m, 4.0% y/y in February (from 0.4% m/m, 3.9% y/y in January). "

"No change to our call as we maintain our FOMC view of only one 25-bps cut in 2Q 2025 (likely June FOMC) and then stay on hold for rest of the year at 4.25% (upper bound of Fed Funds Target Rate). Key data to watch will be Feb CPI inflation (12 March) and University of Michigan consumer confidence sentiment for Mar (14 March)."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.