UK: Key events today – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are out with a brief preview of the UK’s inflation data that are lined up for release today at 0930 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Consumer prices: We expect a small decline in CPI inflation in January to 2.9% from 3% in December. We expect more notable declines over the coming months thanks to the inflationary effect of past falls in sterling beginning to unwind. We see CPI inflation falling below 2.5% by mid-year. As for RPI inflation, we see that falling a tenth too, with downside risks on account of a possible unwind in the RPICPI wedge (which rose sharply in December).

Producer prices: A feature of the January PMI and CBI manufacturing surveys was a sharp rise in the output price indicators (the latter to its highest since 1984). This explains our forecast for a strong rise in official output prices at the core and headline levels (0.4% m-o-m). We expect sterling's rise during January to almost offset the rise in dollar crude oil prices when it comes input prices.”