UK: Disorderly Brexit comes off the table – ABN AMRO

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that cutting through the noise of the many recent developments in the UK, by far the most important for the economic outlook has been the significant fall in the chance of a no-deal, disorderly Brexit.

Key Quotes

“This occurred because of two things: first, the so-called ‘Benn’ Act which forced the government to request a delay to Brexit at the end of October. Second, PM Johnson managed to secure a deal that his hard Brexit cabinet could support. This has narrowed the likely outcomes of the looming election to Johnson’s new deal on one side, and a soft Brexit or Remain outcome on the other side.”

“While risks remain, the tail risk of a disorderly Brexit is significantly lower. In this note, we will explore the likelihood of each of these outcomes, and the implications for the UK economic outlook.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

EUR/USD holds losses below 1.1850 near nine-day EMA barrier

EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.1840 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 53 (neutral) signals consolidation with a modest upside lean.

GBP/USD drops below 1.3600 after weak UK jobs report

GBP/USD is seeing a fresh selling wave, giving up the 1.3600 level in Tuesday's European trading. The United Kingdom employment data showed worsening labor market conditions, bolstering bets for a BoE interest rate cut next month. This narrative is weighing heavily on the Pound Sterling.

Gold adds to intraday losses as risk-on mood offsets dovish Fed and subdued USD demand

Gold attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day and dives to over a one-week low, around the $4,858 area, heading into the European session on Tuesday. The commodity, however, quickly recovers to the $4,900 mark as traders opt to await more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets.

Pi Network rallies ahead of its first anniversary

Pi Network trades above $0.1800 at the time of writing on Tuesday, recording nearly 5% gains so far. On-chain data indicate that large wallet investors, commonly known as whales, have accumulated approximately 4 million PI tokens over the last 24 hours.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

Stellar mixed sentiment caps recovery

Stellar price remains under pressure, trading at $0.170 on Tuesday after failing to close above the key resistance on Sunday. The derivatives metric supports the bearish sentiment, with XLM’s short bets rising among traders and funding rates turning negative.