- United Kingdom's annual CPI advanced 1.7% in September vs. 1.9% forecast.
- British inflation eased to 0% MoM in September vs. 0.1% estimate.
- GBP/USD drops toward 1.3000 after UK CPI inflation data.
The United Kingdom (UK) annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August, according to the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday.
Data came in below the estimated growth of 1.9%, moving back under the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2.0% target for the first time in over three years.
Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) advanced by 3.2% YoY in September, compared to a 3.6% rise in August while missing the market consensus of 3.4%.
The UK September Services CPI inflation dropped to 4.9% YoY in September versus August’s 5.6%, below the key 5.0% level.
Meanwhile, the UK Consumer Price Index arrived at 0% MoM in September after rebounding 0.3% in August. The market forecast was for a 0.1% increase in the reported period.
GBP/USD reaction to the UK CPI inflation data
The UK CPI data smashes the Pound Sterling, as the GBP/USD pair drops back toward 1.3000. The pair is trading 0.40% lower on the day near 1.3015, as of writing.
GBP/USD: 15-minutes chart
(This story was corrected on October 16 at 07:27 GMT to say that British inflation eased to 0% MoM in September vs. 0.1% estimate, not 0.2% estimate)
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.30% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.28% | 0.02% | -0.07% | 0.04% | 0.23% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | -0.28% | -0.29% | -0.33% | -0.23% | -0.05% | -0.29% | |
| JPY | -0.07% | -0.02% | 0.29% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.07% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.28% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.23% | -0.05% | -0.10% | 0.18% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.23% | 0.05% | -0.22% | -0.28% | -0.18% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.08% | 0.29% | -0.00% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published at 02:15 GMT as a preview of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.
- United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the CPI report on Wednesday.
- The annual UK headline and core inflation are expected to ease in September.
- The UK CPI data could seal in a BoE November interest-rate cut, a scenario that would weigh on Pound Sterling.
The United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT.
The UK CPI inflation report could affirm expectations of 25 basis points (bps) interest-rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in November, injecting a fresh bout of volatility into the Pound Sterling.
What to expect from the next UK inflation report?
The UK annual Consumer Price Index is likely to increase by 1.9% in September, sharply slowing down from August’s 2.2% growth while moving back below the BoE’s 2.0% target.
The core CPI inflation is set to ease to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.6% in August.
Official data is expected to show that services inflation fell to 5.2% in September from 5.6% the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The BoE projected the annual headline CPI at 2.1% and services CPI at 5.5% for September.
Meanwhile, the British monthly CPI is seen rising 0.1% in the same period, as against the previous increase of 0.3%.
Previewing the UK inflation data, TD Securities (TDS) analysts noted: “We look for UK inflation to continue its steady march downward. But rapidly falling energy prices still heavily distort the headline number, and services inflation is likely to remain above 5.0% YoY (TDS: 5.2%, mkt: 5.3%), leaving core well above a range the MPC is comfortable with.”
“Hotel and airfare prices remain key sources of volatility in the month,” the TDS analysts said.
How will the UK Consumer Price Index report affect GBP/USD?
Heading into the UK CPI event risk, Pound Sterling traders weigh in on the odds of the BoE rate cut next month, especially after the contradictory messages from BoE policymakers earlier in October.
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said that there is “ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence,” adding that the “need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction.” Just a day before Pill’s appearance, Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the UK central bank “could become a bit more activist on rate cuts if there’s further good news on inflation.”
Therefore, the UK CPI data could help confirm whether the BoE will resume its rate-cutting cycle after pausing in September.
An upside surprise to the headline and core inflation data would likely douse the market’s expectations of a rate cut next month, lifting the Pound Sterling. In such a case, GBP/USD could stage a decisive comeback from multi-week troughs.
Conversely, the GBP/USD downtrend could extend if the UK CPI readings meet forecasts or come in softer-than-expectations. Thus, the UK central bank’s progress on disinflation could confirm another rate reduction in November, throwing the British Pound under the bus.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and explains: “GBP/USD has entered a downside consolidative mode in the countdown to the UK CPI data release. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds near 40, suggesting that more losses remain in the offing.”
Dhwani adds: “The pair needs to find acceptance above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3115 on a daily closing basis to negate the near-term bearish bias. The next upside targets are seen at the October 4 high at 1.3175 and the 21-day SMA at 1.3215. Alternatively, the immediate support is aligned at the 100-day SMA at 1.2950, below which the March 8 high of 1.2894 could be tested.”
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.